Vice-presidential poll: NDA's test of numbers, optics, and conscience

With cross-voting fears haunting the BJP and growing unease within the NDA, Tuesday's vice-presidential election could reshape India’s political landscape.

On the surface, the numbers seem clear. The BJP and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners command a majority in Parliament, with 427 MPs on their side. By contrast, the Opposition INDIA bloc has 353 MPs. For victory in the election, a candidate requires 392 votes. Simple arithmetic suggests an easy win for NDA nominee C.P. Radhakrishnan.

But politics is rarely about arithmetic alone. Over the past few weeks, reports of dissent, lobbying, and the possibility of cross-voting have unsettled the BJP leadership. The Opposition’s candidate, retired Justice B. Sudershan Reddy, has emerged as a credible challenger, not because the INDIA bloc has the numbers, but because the BJP appears less confident of its own house than ever before.

Ordinarily, the vice-president’s election does not generate the kind of feverish speculation that grips a general election or a crucial state poll. Yet this time, the stakes are unusually high. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah have invested their personal authority in ensuring Radhakrishnan’s victory. The problem for the duo is not just about numbers. It is about loyalty.

Within the BJP, there are murmurs of discontent after a string of electoral setbacks and what some MPs privately describe as an over-centralised style of functioning. In the NDA, allies such as Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP and Odisha’s BJD are weighing their options carefully, even as they publicly avoid a break with the ruling dispensation. Indeed, the BJD has already declared its decision to abstain, claiming it wishes to remain equidistant from both the INDIA bloc and the NDA.

The INDIA bloc, for its part, has mounted an aggressive campaign. Justice Reddy has reached out to disgruntled MPs across party lines, banking on the secrecy of the ballot and the possibility that a protest vote could tilt the scales.

The threshold for victory is 392 votes. For Justice Reddy to win, around 35–40 MPs from the NDA, including the BJP itself, would need to cross-vote, in addition to INDIA securing the support of a handful of MPs from smaller parties or independents. That seems like a tall order.

Yet, whispers of disquiet among BJP parliamentarians have given the Opposition hope. Even a reduced margin of victory for Radhakrishnan would be interpreted as evidence of cracks within the ruling alliance.

The BJP’s nervousness is evident. Senior leaders, including Shah himself, are reported to have made personal calls to MPs he seldom interacts with. MPs are being monitored closely, and rumours of inducements and threats are rife. But the very need for such extraordinary measures suggests a loss of the aura of invincibility that Modi and Shah once wielded over their flock.

Analysts point out that the vice-president’s election has become a “lose–lose” scenario for the BJP’s top leadership.

• If Radhakrishnan wins comfortably, it will only confirm what the numbers already suggested, but it may not silence doubts about the heavy-handed tactics reportedly used to secure loyalty.

• If he wins with a reduced margin, it will expose the extent of internal dissent and embolden critics both within the BJP and outside.

• If he loses, it would be nothing short of a political earthquake. The myth of Modi-Shah’s electoral invincibility would be shattered, and the Opposition would sense a once-in-a-decade opportunity to destabilise the government.

For Modi and Shah, the problem runs deeper. Their authority within the NDA has long rested not only on the BJP’s numerical strength but also on a cultivated image of being election-winning machines. If MPs begin to believe that this image was built less on political skill and more on questionable practices, the fear that once kept allies and rivals in check dissipates quickly.

The central suspense of tomorrow’s ballot is whether BJP MPs themselves will rebel. Cross-voting in such elections is not new, but rarely has it been speculated at this scale. Several factors make the possibility plausible:

• Dissatisfaction among non-RSS BJP MPs: Nearly half of BJP MPs do not owe their careers to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). With Modi’s dominance fading, they may feel freer to vote according to conscience.

• Discomfort with Radhakrishnan’s candidature: Some NDA partners reportedly view him as a figure too closely aligned with the Modi-Shah duo, making him unpalatable to factions that want a course correction.

• RSS’s silent role: While committed to maintaining the NDA in power, the RSS is said to be less enthusiastic about Radhakrishnan’s candidacy, preferring a result that clips Modi’s wings without toppling the government outright.

Justice Reddy’s candidacy has therefore become a rallying point, not only for the Opposition but for BJP dissenters and fence-sitting allies. If he were to pull off a surprise victory, the political consequences would be profound.

First, it would signal a dramatic weakening of Modi and Shah’s grip over both their party and the alliance. The secrecy of the ballot means that even a handful of defections cannot be pinned down, leaving the leadership unable to punish dissenters directly. The fear factor would evaporate.

Second, it could embolden the Opposition INDIA bloc. While a vice-president’s election does not directly alter the balance of power in government, a symbolic victory of this magnitude could reinvigorate the Opposition, offering proof that the ruling alliance is not impregnable.

Third, allies such as Naidu or Nitish Kumar could reconsider their positions. If they sense that the BJP is no longer a guarantor of stability, the prospect of realignments becomes stronger. Though a no-confidence motion may not be immediately feasible, the psychological blow would accelerate churning within the NDA.

Finally, it would set the stage for the 2029 general elections in unexpected ways. The BJP’s narrative of dominance, built since 2014, could unravel faster than anticipated.

In fact, even if Radhakrishnan secures the vice-presidency, the BJP’s troubles may not be over. A reduced margin would still enable the Opposition to still claim a moral victory, pointing to cross-voting as evidence of dissent. For the BJP, the challenge would then be to manage disaffection ahead of upcoming state elections and the next general election cycle.

In the end, this election is less about who occupies the Rajya Sabha chair and more about the credibility of India’s most dominant political leadership in recent decades. Will Modi and Shah reassert control, or will the secrecy of the ballot box expose their vulnerability? Will BJP MPs and NDA allies fall in line, or will they signal their independence through a quiet rebellion?

By tomorrow evening, the answer will be clear. Yet regardless of the outcome, the very fact that the BJP leadership is sweating over what should have been a routine victory already tells a story: the aura of invincibility that once defined Modi and Shah is fading, and India’s political theatre may be entering a new, unpredictable act.

Hasnain Naqvi is a former member of the history faculty at St Xavier’s College, Mumbai. More of his writing can be found here