Sea temperatures near record in March as El Nino odds rise: Climate agency

Global sea surface temperatures climbed to their second-highest level on record in March, nearing peaks last seen during the previous El Niño episode, according to the European Union’s climate monitor. The trend has raised fresh concerns that the planet could be entering another phase of accelerated warming later this year.

Data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed that the average sea surface temperature across extra-polar oceans—spanning latitudes from 60° south to 60° north—reached 20.97°C in March. This marks the second-highest March reading on record, just behind March 2024, when a strong El Niño event drove temperatures to unprecedented highs.

C3S noted that daily sea surface temperatures rose steadily throughout March, edging close to record levels observed last year. The agency added that several global climate centres are now forecasting a shift from neutral conditions to an El Niño phase in the second half of 2026. This phenomenon, characterised by unusually warm ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific, often leads to higher global temperatures and more intense extreme weather events in many regions.

The warming oceans coincided with broader global heat trends. March 2026 ranked as the fourth-warmest March on record, with the global average surface air temperature standing 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), underscoring the continued upward trajectory of global warming.

Europe recorded its second-warmest March ever, alongside notably dry conditions across much of the continent. This followed an unusually wet and colder-than-average February, highlighting increasing climate variability. Elsewhere, parts of the United States and Mexico experienced severe heat and dryness, including an unusually early heatwave.

The Arctic also reflected the intensifying climate stress, with both its annual maximum sea ice extent and average March ice levels dropping to the lowest recorded levels.

Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, described the data as deeply concerning. He said that while each indicator is alarming on its own, together they point to a climate system under sustained and accelerating pressure.

The findings reinforce growing scientific concern that rising ocean temperatures — one of the clearest indicators of global warming — are playing a central role in driving extreme weather patterns and long-term climate shifts worldwide.

With IANS inputs