Super El Niño may cause 15,800 excess heat deaths in India: Study

• University of Chicago study estimates that the strengthening El Niño could cause 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India between September 2026 and February 2027.

• The study projects 239,000 excess heat deaths globally, while WMO says the current El Niño is likely to persist through February 2027 and reach ‘very strong’ intensity towards the end of 2026.

• WMO does not use the term ‘super El Niño’ and cautions that regional impacts vary; experts are urging heat-warning systems, heat action plans, water access and other preparedness measures to limit deaths.

A strengthening El Niño over the equatorial Pacific could lead to around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India over the next six months compared with a normal year, according to a new study released on Wednesday, 23 September.

The study by the University of Chicago's Energy Policy Institute projects around 239,000 excess deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027 as the climate phenomenon drives temperatures higher across large parts of the globe.

The researchers describe the current event as a ‘super El Niño’, estimating that it could push global land temperatures around 1.2°C above normal in the coming months. They say the resulting heat could offer a preview of temperature conditions that climate change is projected to make more commonplace over the next two decades.

The projection comes as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that El Niño is strengthening rapidly and is expected to reach ‘very strong’ intensity before peaking towards the end of this year. The WMO estimates a near-100 per cent likelihood that the event will persist through February 2027.

The UN weather agency, however, does not use the term ‘super El Niño’, instead classifying events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. It has also cautioned that the strength of an El Niño event alone does not determine how severe its effects will be in a particular country, as regional impacts are shaped by season, geography and other climate drivers.

According to the study, the additional heat could have its greatest mortality impact in regions with high exposure to extreme temperatures and limited capacity to adapt.

The Sahel in Africa is projected to record around 66,800 additional heat-related deaths over the six-month period, including 31,400 in Nigeria, 17,500 in Sudan, 10,000 in Niger and 8,000 in Chad, the University of Chicago said.

In Southeast Asia, the study projects 19,400 additional deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, and another 19,300 in Indonesia. India is estimated to account for 15,800 additional deaths, while Brazil could see around 13,300.

The researchers said the projections highlight the need for governments to prepare for extreme heat before it arrives, particularly in countries and regions where health systems and warning mechanisms are less equipped to cope with prolonged heat.

The recommended measures include heat early-warning systems, heat action plans that allow health authorities to identify and reach vulnerable people, and greater access to drinking water and cooling facilities.

The study's projections come against a backdrop of unusually warm global temperatures. WMO said earlier this month that exceptionally warm waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were continuing to strengthen the current El Niño. Weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies in the region reached roughly 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average in late July and mid-August, while some subsurface areas were more than 8°C warmer than normal.

WMO has forecast above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas for September-November, while also warning that the combination of El Niño with other climate drivers, including a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, could alter its typical regional effects.

"El Niño changes the odds; it does not determine the weather in every city or cause every heatwave," WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said this week, stressing the need to translate global forecasts into locally relevant warnings and action.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It typically develops every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months, with its peak generally occurring between November and February. While El Niño itself is not caused by climate change, WMO says a warmer atmosphere and ocean can amplify some of its associated impacts, including extreme heat and heavy rainfall.

With PTI inputs