FIFA World Cup: Spain favourites for title, says Opta the supercomputer

Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to start in less than 10 days in the US, Canada and Mexico? While the pundits wrack their brains, Opta the supercomputer has identified Lamine Yamal’s Spain as the leading favourite on the basis of topping it’s extensive simulation model.

While La Roja, the reigning European champions, emerged as the favourite after a 16.1 per cent run of 10,000 tournaments, France, England and Argentina continue to be viewed as other major contenders. Each of the three teams surpassed the 10 per cent mark for tournament victories in the model’s projections.

The data also suggest that a maiden World Cup winner remains far from certain with just over a third of simulations producing a first-time champion. The sheer size of the 2026 World Cup means forecasting has become more complicated than ever with 48 teams creating countless possible scenarios.

Spain, however, emerged as the clear frontrunners in Opta’s modelling despite such uncertainty. If they can pull it off, the current bunch will emulate the golden generation of Spain which followed up their 2008 Euro crown with the 2010 World Cup crown.

They were the only nation more likely than not to secure a place in the quarter-finals, doing so in 52.1 per cent of simulations. Their prospects remained strong deeper into the tournament, with a 39 per cent probability of reaching the last four and a 25.6 per cent chance of appearing in the final.

The supercomputer also points to a potentially comfortable start for the Spaniards, who topped Group H in more than three quarters of simulations against opposition including Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde.

Spain may lead the projections, but France, England and Argentina remain firmly in contention according to Opta. France secured a 13 per cent title probability while England and Argentina followed on 11.2 per cent and 10.4 per cent respectively.

France’s path through the group stage is viewed as the most demanding among the tournament favourites with Norway, Senegal and Iraq providing stern opposition in Group I. Argentina and England are expected to dominate their groups, topping them in 73 per cent and 67.9 per cent of simulations. France managed the same feat in 60.3 per cent of projected outcomes.

The new format of the tournament will comprise of 12 groups of four countries and a record 104 matches. Teams finishing first and second in each group will secure direct passage to the knockout stages while the eight strongest third-placed sides will also advance, creating the inaugural round of 32 in World Cup history.