Canada: No joy for India in Trudeau resignation, actually

One of the reasons for Justin Trudeau’s unpopularity in Canada has been the large influx of immigrants who were blamed for making housing unaffordable for many Canadians.

He was also blamed for not standing up to Donald Trump, who taunted Trudeau as ‘governor’ of Canada and made no secret of his vision of Canada as a 51st state — or essentially, a vassal — of the United States. The comment coincided with Trudeau flying down to meet the president-elect, who had just threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian exports to the United States. Canada’s economy being in bad shape already, the threatened tariff ‘from Day 1’ would cripple Canada, explaining Trudeau’s scurrying.

Reacting to Trudeau’s resignation today, 7 January, Donald Trump doubled down on his social media platform Truth Social, ‘Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st state. The United States can no longer suffer the massive trade deficits and subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Justin Trudeau knew this, and (therefore) resigned… if Canada merged with the US, there would be no tariffs, taxes would go way down and they would be totally secure from the threat of the Russian and Chinese ships that are constantly surrounding them. Together, what a great nation it would be!!!’

Justin Trudeau, however, is going to continue as caretaker prime minister till the Liberal Party elects a new leader, which is likely to take months and will require a leadership convention to be called.

With the Liberal Party trailing the Tories or the Conservative Party by 24 percentage points in the polls, the Liberals are expected to lose the next election, which is likely to be held by October 2025.

Trudeau has come in for sharp criticism for resigning so late, meanwhile. Given that his lame duck administration in no position to effectively bargain with Trump and the US, Canada stares at a period of political and economic uncertainty.

While Conservative Party leader Pierre Pollievre has gone on record saying that he favoured a ‘professional relationship’ with India, having frowned on Trudeau’s handling of the tension in bilateral relations following the assassination of Khalistani sympathiser Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023, the new Tory government is likely to be more aligned with the establishment in Washington DC on immigration and trade.

An estimated 427,000 Indian students are said to be studying in Canada. According to the 2021 Canadian census data, Canada harbours approximately 1.86 million individuals of Indian origin, accounting for 5.1 per cent of the country’s total population. It is one of the most successful immigrant communities in the country and the growth in the number of Indians migrating to Canada was enabled by liberal visa and immigration policies. Approximately one-fifth of its recent immigrants still hail from India, marking the highest percentage of immigrants in Canada from a single country of origin since 1971.

Will the liberal policies followed in the past continue as before under the Conservative Party? That, at the moment, is a subject of considerable speculation. What is certain is that immigration will continue to be a hot button issue in India’s relationship with Canada.

Trudeau’s resignation may or may not ease diplomatic relations, which have been bitter in the recent past — with the expulsion of diplomats and Trudeau accusing Indian ‘agents’ of interfering in Canada’s internal affairs and assassinating Canadian citizens on Canadian soil.

However, experts do not expect the mess to be buried in Trudeau’s wake either.

While India has consistently denied the allegations and maintained that no hard evidence was shared by the Canadians, the allegations made by Canada contained information that was shared by US intelligence agencies, with the US also has maintaining that the US and Canada had been acting closely together on the matter.

Therefore, in many ways, Canada’s relations with the United States and Donald Trump are likely to shape its relations with India in future — including trade.

Indo-Canadian trade has been brisk so far and, while no turbulence is visible at the moment, the next few months will indicate whether it may continue to be smooth sailing in India’s favour.