Trump faces tough midterms as economic woes weigh on Republicans

• Economic discontent over tariffs, the Iran conflict and rising fuel prices has weakened Trump’s approval ratings, with polls projecting Democratic gains in the House

• Democrats are favoured to win the House, while control of the Senate remains uncertain, raising the prospect of clashes over Trump’s agenda

• Trump is campaigning in Republican strongholds to shore up support as some GOP candidates distance themselves from his policies amid voter dissatisfaction

A week before the US midterm elections, President Donald Trump and his Republican Party face mounting challenges, with opinion polls pointing to potential losses in the House of Representatives and a closely contested Senate race.

The economic fallout of Trump’s tariff war and the conflict with Iran has weighed on voters, weakening support for his administration. Major poll analysts broadly expect Democrats to regain control of the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up.

The election outcome will shape Trump’s final two years in office. If Democrats take control of either chamber of Congress, they could obstruct his legislative agenda and scrutinise his administration, potentially triggering political confrontations and judicial intervention. A Democratic-controlled House could also revive memories of Trump’s first term, when he was impeached twice.

Trump has sought to energise his supporters with campaign promises and rallies, including an offer of $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans win the midterms. He has also signalled a willingness to ease sanctions on Russia and pursue a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to buy diesel, despite his administration’s earlier hard-line trade measures, including steep tariffs on India.

Trump has framed the midterms as a referendum on the first 20 months of his second administration, urging voters to treat the election as if he himself were on the ballot. However, several Republicans are distancing themselves from the president amid declining approval ratings.

Republican New Hampshire Senate candidate John Sununu, for instance, has sought to establish distance from Trump’s policies. In a campaign advertisement, Sununu said he would oppose the president when his policies harmed New Hampshire, citing his opposition to the war in Iran and the trade war with Canada.

Trump has also concentrated his campaign appearances in traditionally Republican states, seeking to shore up support in areas he comfortably won in the 2024 presidential election. His recent rallies, branded “Trumpapaloozas”, have taken him from Alaska to Texas. He has claimed that his appearances are helping struggling Republican candidates regain ground.

The political stakes have extended to Alaska, where the Justice Department has filed a lawsuit seeking to prevent the state from officially declaring the Senate election if Republican candidate Dan S. Sullivan loses. The administration argues that another candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan, has a similar name that could confuse voters.

Voting is already underway. As of Monday, nearly 30 million Americans had voted through postal ballots or in-person early voting. Of the country’s 217 million registered voters, turnout in midterm elections has historically been lower than in presidential elections, reaching 46.2 per cent in 2022 and 50 per cent in 2018.

Democrats regaining control of the House would follow a historical pattern in which the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections. However, the size of the Democratic majority will be crucial in determining how effectively the party can challenge Trump’s agenda.

RealClearPolitics, which aggregates opinion polls, puts Trump’s job approval at 38.2 per cent, while 60.2 per cent disapprove of his performance. Another significant finding is that 57 per cent of voters say Trump’s policies have left them financially worse off.

Economic concerns have become a central issue in the campaign. Inflation reportedly rose to 3.7 per cent last month, up from 3.4 per cent in August, while rising fuel prices and tariffs have increased pressure on household budgets.

The surge in petrol and diesel prices is particularly damaging for Trump, who promised during the 2024 presidential campaign to bring petrol prices down to $2 a gallon. The average price has instead reached $4.28 a gallon, while diesel has climbed to $6.28 a gallon, according to the figures cited in the report.

The higher cost of fuel also affects transportation, food distribution and other everyday expenses, compounding the impact of tariffs on consumer goods.

RealClearPolitics projects Democrats winning 227 of the House’s 435 seats, including 25 races classified as toss-ups. The Cook Political Report forecasts 220 Democratic seats, with 17 races too close to call.

CBS News projects a possible 229 seats for Democrats and 206 for Republicans, while cautioning that Republicans retain a narrow path to keeping control. The network has noted that there is no clear evidence of a growing Democratic wave and that undecided voters tend to lean more Republican.

The Senate contest is less clear-cut. Only 35 of the chamber’s 100 seats are up for election this year, reflecting the staggered six-year terms of senators.

CBS News’ assessment of seats not up for election gives Democrats 46 seats and Republicans 44, with 10 races classified as toss-ups. Based on current trends in competitive states, the network sees a possible 52–48 Democratic majority.

The Cook Political Report offers a different assessment, projecting 15 seats for Republicans and 13 for Democrats among the races it evaluates, with seven remaining toss-ups.

The competing projections underline the uncertainty surrounding control of the Senate, which will be critical to Trump’s ability to advance his legislative priorities and secure support for key appointments.

Trump, a tireless campaigner, has increasingly focused on states where he secured decisive victories in 2024, seeking to prevent further erosion of Republican support.

On Tuesday, he is scheduled to hold two rallies in Texas, a state he won by 14 percentage points in the presidential election. Yet Republican candidate Ken Paxton is reportedly trailing Democrat James Talarico by 1.5 percentage points, a significant shift from the state’s previous voting pattern.

Trump held a rally in Mississippi on Monday, a state he won by 24 percentage points, and appeared in Michigan on Sunday, where he had secured a narrow victory. Earlier rallies took him to Florida and Iowa, both of which he won by around 13 percentage points in 2024.

With economic discontent mounting and his approval ratings under pressure, Trump is relying on his personal campaigning to protect Republican candidates. The midterms will determine not only control of Congress but also how much political room he has to pursue his agenda during the remainder of his term.

With IANS inputs