Russia-Belarus joint military drill alarms Europe, brings NATO defences online

Today, 12 September, Friday, a major joint military drill launched by Russia and Belarus — named Zapad 2025, meaning ‘West 2025’ — saw the commencement of a large-scale exercise involving thousands of troops, advanced weapons systems and, crucially for regional peace and security, key manoeuvres near NATO’s eastern flank.

Scheduled to run from 12 to 16 September, these exercises are intended — according to Moscow and Minsk — to test the “defensive readiness” of the so-called Union State and to demonstrate close military cooperation between the two countries.

The drills consist of two main phases: first, simulated defence against an enemy attack and, second, coordinated counterattacks to retake lost ground. Notably, this round of Zapad features live-fire training with nuclear-capable missile systems and is being held across locations in both Russia and Belarus — including areas near the borders of Poland and Lithuania.

Impact on Europe

The Zapad 2025 exercise has naturally alarmed NATO members, particularly Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, with officials there describing the manoeuvres as "very aggressive" and "provocative" — especially given the fresh memories of Russia using previous joint drills as a cover for the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine 3.5 years ago.

Poland has shuttered its border crossings in response and elevated its alert level, while NATO and several national militaries have launched parallel exercises and boosted air defence readiness. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk warned that the country may be nearing "open conflict" not seen since World War II, underscoring the seriousness of the moment — and its not just because of Zapad.

In parallel, a Russian drone attack on Europe?

Just days before the Zapad exercises began, a significant Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace took place as well, with at least 19 drones reportedly entering Poland and several being shot down by NATO-aligned forces.

The Polish government described this as a “direct threat” not just to Poland but to broader European security, invoking NATO's Article 4 for collective consultation. European leaders consider the drone incident a deliberate Russian provocation intended to test NATO’s defences and readiness at a time of heightened regional tension.

While Moscow has denied any deliberate link between the drone strikes and the start of the Zapad 2025 drills, Western officials and analysts widely view the timing as coordinated — with Moscow using the high-profile exercise as a cover or context for escalation and intimidation, and to gauge NATO’s collective response.

“We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn't. And we know it,” Tusk posted, directly rebutting US president Donald Trump’s suggestion that the incident might have been ‘accidental’ — after earlier posting a rather ambiguous “Here we go” on his Truth Social network.

Trump has been another headache for the EU since his re-election in 2024, cutting NATO expenditure and forcing Europe to contribute more to its own and Ukraine’s defences — and seeming to see-saw between support for Ukraine and Russia, and playing fulcrum between them.

Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski was meanwhile in Kyiv, with discussions focused on “shared security, Ukraine's EU and NATO accession, and pressure on Moscow”, with Poland and Ukraine agreeing to collaborate on anti-drone defence training.

The combination of major land exercises and airspace violations has become a recurring playbook in Russia’s strategic messaging to Europe, escalating fears of accidental or intentional conflict along the alliance’s borders with its war on Ukraine ongoing and more European defence spending in the offing on its own behalf and Ukrainian president Zelenskyy’s.

It certainly doesn’t help anyone’s assumption of bona fides from Russian president Vladimir Putin that these moves come on the heels of the European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen’s push for more sanctions on Russia and reduced trade.

Europe pulls on the gauntlet

With the Zapad exercises on the heels of the drone incursion, France today announced that it is sending three Rafale fighter jets to Poland, while the United Kingdom unveiled new sanctions targeting Russia’s oil revenues and military infrastructure.

These initial, deliberate responses by European allies seem designed to signal to Moscow that “any further aggression won’t go unchecked”.

French president Emmanuel Macron declared, “The security of the European continent is our top priority. We will not yield to Russia's growing intimidation”, while explaining that this fighter jet deployment fulfils the allies’ commitment to Poland and was decided in coordination with NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte and British prime minister Keir Starmer.

In parallel, the UK’s new measures include sanctions against 70 vessels described as Russia’s “shadow fleet”, allegedly used to transport Russian oil in violation of existing sanctions. An additional 30 individuals and companies, including Chinese and Turkish entities, have been sanctioned for their alleged role in supplying Russia with electronics, chemicals, explosives and other weapon-related components. (These are not the first such sanctions from the UK or the EU, of course.)

The sanctions were announced even as British foreign secretary Yvette Cooper also visited Kyiv, marking her first trip to Ukraine since her recent appointment.

Cooper emphasised, “The UK will not stand idly by as Putin continues his barbaric invasion of Ukraine,” and cited President Putin's “complete disregard for sovereignty” in sending drones into NATO-controlled airspace.

“International action to increase economic pressure on Russia and to cut off critical cash flows which he desperately needs to pay for this illegal war is vital,” she added.

Conclusion

The Russia–Belarus Zapad 2025 joint military drill is widely seen as an intimidation-directed demonstration of force and a tool for strategic pressure against NATO, with immediate repercussions across Europe in the form of heightened military readiness and diplomatic alarm.

The concurrent Russian drone incursion into Poland is interpreted as a related, if not explicitly coordinated, incident — both serving to raise tensions and underline the volatile security situation in Eastern Europe.