Heatwaves driving India into ‘heat-power trap’, fossil dependence spike: Study

A spike in record-breaking heatwaves across India is directly fuelling an unprecedented rise in electricity demand and pushing the country into a dangerous “heat-power trap”, a new study warned on Thursday.

The report, titled 'Breaking the Cycle', jointly released by Climate Trends and Climate Compatible Futures — says India is now experiencing longer, harsher summers that are tightly linked to a surge in fossil-fuel consumption, worsening emissions and exposing millions to energy insecurity.

According to the analysis, the number of heatwave days with temperatures crossing 40°C rose sharply over the past decade, with 14 states witnessing a 15 per cent increase in summer heat intensity between 2015 and 2024. India’s annual average temperature in 2024 was 0.65°C higher than the 1991-2020 baseline.

As temperatures climbed, power demand shot up in parallel. Heatwave conditions alone added nearly nine per cent to India’s peak electricity demand between April and June 2024, resulting in 327 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, the study found. Over the past decade, fossil-based summer power generation contributed a staggering 2.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide.

“Rising temperatures have consistently increased electricity demand, largely for cooling. Meeting that surge through fossil fuels has worsened both emissions and air pollution,” said Manish Ram, CEO of Climate Compatible Futures. “Breaking this cycle is crucial, especially for vulnerable communities who face the dual burden of heat stress and energy shortages.”

The report notes that though India’s renewable energy capacity expanded rapidly from 84 GW in 2015 to 209 GW in 2024, coal continues to dominate. Fossil-fuel capacity grew from 195 GW to 243 GW over the same period. While renewables saw a 121 per cent rise in generation, fossil-fuel output also grew by 50 per cent — signalling that clean energy is supplementing, not replacing, coal.

Worst affected states

Regions already grappling with severe heat — including Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and parts of the northern belt — experienced the sharpest strain on the grid. Previously moderate regions are also heating up rapidly: Uttarakhand jumped from zero heatwave days in 2023 to 25 in 2024, with an 11.2 per cent rise in summer temperature. Ladakh recorded a 9.1 per cent increase.

Climate inequity is deepening, the authors warn. Rural and low-income populations, with limited access to cooling and unreliable electricity, are disproportionately exposed to both heat and grid failures.

To break the heat-power loop, Ram said states must urgently “expand renewable energy, build large-scale storage and strengthen flexible grid systems”. Even renewable-heavy states, he noted, are now hitting integration limits without adequate storage infrastructure.

Aarti Khosla, director of Climate Trends, said heatwaves and power shortages “can no longer be seen as separate crises”.

She argued that modern grid upgrades, energy storage systems and climate-resilient urban cooling strategies must be treated as a national priority. “Without these investments, every summer will lock us deeper into fossil dependence. This is an equity imperative.”

The report also highlighted critical gaps in Heat Action Plans. Only four states, three cities and one district include renewable-powered backup such as solar or battery storage.

Citing recent studies by Ember and CREA, the authors said India can avoid new coal expansion if it meets its 2032 capacity targets and continues adding 50 GW of renewable capacity annually until 2035 — a pathway that would allow coal generation to peak and decline.