Rajasthan: What caused refinery fire the day before PM Modi’s visit?

Questions are mounting over the investigation into the fire at Rajasthan's Pachpadra refinery on Monday, 20 April. The probe has been handed over to the National Investigation Agency (NIA), but it remains unclear whether the blaze was an act of sabotage, an accident caused by a design defect or malfunctioning equipment, or part of an international conspiracy.

Spread over 4,500 acres and built at a cost of Rs 79,459 crore, the refinery employs over 20,000 workers and staff.

Social media has been abuzz with reports of 10 such fires in refineries across the world over the past month. Many believe this cannot be a coincidence, pointing instead to a possible conspiracy aimed at creating a shortage of petroleum products. Commercial rivalry is another angle under scrutiny.

The mystery has deepened following claims by former Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot, who said he had consulted an Australia-based refinery expert. According to Gehlot, the expert stated that fires in new refineries are extremely rare, with technical failures typically occurring after 20–25 years of operation.

The expert also expressed scepticism about Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL)’s explanation that the fire resulted from leakage of hydrocarbons through one of the valves or fringes in the heat exchanger circuit.

Conspiracy theorists have also pointed to a post on X by @Aravind, who issued a warning four days before the fire. “Indian oil refineries must take extra steps on security, and sabotage from the inside. India must step up surveillance and security. I got a bad hunch that the adversary (GLISCO_DS linked) can burn a refinery to increase oil prices for geopolitical reasons and also to derail India’s economy…

'I think anyone could have predicted if they had followed the news on refinery fires in patterns around the world. There were refinery fires in Mexico, Canada, US (two sites), Russia (two sites), Australia, Ecuador etc. one after the other in just the last 20 days or so,” he had posted.

GLISCO (Globalist-Islamist-Communist) is described as a term used for networks allegedly working to destabilise global trade and the economy. On 30 March, @Aravind had also tweeted that plans were afoot to hit the Indian economy hard. While intelligence agencies and the government’s fact-checking mechanisms did not act on these warnings at the time, the NIA is now said to be tracking the account and plans to interrogate the handler.

Investigators are also examining the possibility of technical failures and negligence by supervisory staff responsible for the plant. There is concern that lapses may have occurred due to pressure and preoccupation surrounding the prime minister’s visit to the facility on Tuesday, 21 April. Whether the fire was linked to the visit or intended to disrupt it is also being probed.

Once the primary investigation concludes, HPCL and the ministry of oil and petroleum are expected to consider engaging foreign experts from the US and the Middle East for a more detailed assessment and to recommend stronger safety guardrails.

CCTV footage from across the refinery is being closely analysed to detect any suspicious activity. Entry protocols have been tightened, and surveillance of personnel and outsiders has been significantly enhanced.

HPCL has not released a detailed damage assessment. However, officials have informally indicated that the impact was confined to a limited area. If the Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) has not suffered major damage, they said, commercial production could potentially resume by the originally scheduled date of 1 July.