Will India’s Muslim population surpass Hindus? Data shows the claim is a myth

A recurring claim in political debates and social media suggests that India’s Muslim population is growing so rapidly that it may surpass the Hindu population in the near future.

However, a close look at official demographic data and long‑term projections shows that this fear is unfounded. Experts describe it as a myth driven more by misinformation than by measurable trends. 

According to the 2011 Census, Muslims constituted 14.2 per cent of India’s population. Projections for 2025 place the figure only slightly higher, at 14.6 per cent –15 per cent, indicating a largely stable share. 

Hindus, meanwhile, continue to form around 79–80 per cent of the population. No credible dataset shows Muslims approaching anywhere near a majority.

The most significant demographic shift is the rapid decline in fertility rates across all communities. The National Family Health Survey‑5 (2019–21) reports: 

Community Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Muslims - 2.36

Hindus  - 1.94

The fertility gap has narrowed by nearly 60 per cent over three decades, with Muslim fertility falling faster than any other group. This convergence means population growth is stabilizing, not accelerating.

Demographers attribute the marginally higher growth rate among Muslims not to current fertility levels but to population momentum: 

- A younger age profile means more individuals are entering reproductive age. 

- This effect naturally diminishes over time as fertility rates fall.

Even with this momentum, projections show the Muslim population stabilizing at 17–18 per cent, far below the Hindu share. International and Indian demographic models consistently show that: 

- Muslim fertility is approaching the replacement level of 2.1. 

- Hindu fertility is already below replacement. 

- Rising education, urbanisation, and income levels lead to convergence across communities. As a result, India’s religious composition is expected to remain broadly stable for decades.

Experts say the narrative that Muslims will surpass Hindus is political, not statistical. It persists because: 

- Past trends are misinterpreted as future predictions. 

- Fertility differences are exaggerated. 

- Fear‑based messaging is used for polarisation.

All available evidence points to a clear conclusion: India will remain a Hindu‑majority nation. While the Muslim population will continue to grow modestly, it is not on a trajectory to surpass the Hindu population. Demographers agree that the claim is a myth unsupported by data.