Strategically outmanoeuvred and friendless too

For more than a decade, Narendra Modi sold himself as the man who is taking India to the global high table. His cheerleaders in media and academia even talked about a ‘Modi Doctrine’ in foreign policy, presumably built around his endless foreign trips, stadium-sized rallies with the diaspora, and his televised bear hugs with leaders from Washington to Tokyo. The spin was crude, but the intent was clear: to package Modi as a global statesman who is admired abroad, feared by adversaries and respected by allies.

The reality is a lot bleaker, and India’s international stature has never been lower since Independence. Under Modi, the country has squandered goodwill in the neighbourhood, invited hostility from powerful rivals, and is now facing humiliating slights from both Washington and Beijing. At a moment when the world is splitting into blocs and regional powers are hedging smartly, India has been left isolated, without any trusted friends or lasting allies.

Nowhere is this fall from grace more stark than in Washington. Modi bet big on Donald Trump, going so far as to openly campaign for him in 2019 with the unforgettable slogan: ‘Ab ki baar, Trump sarkar’. Modi convinced himself that his personal chemistry with Trump would deliver strategic gains. It didn’t.

In August 2025, Trump slapped a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods, ending decades of deepening trade ties. He invited Pakistan’s army chief to the White House, signed an oil deal with Islamabad, and bragged repeatedly about brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after the latest clash.

For New Delhi, this was a diplomatic debacle. America not only downgraded its economic partnership with India but also put it on the same footing as Pakistan, erasing the advantage painstakingly built under Dr Manmohan Singh.

The lesson for Modi should have been obvious. He effectively mortgaged India’s foreign policy to the whims of one US president, and when that president turned on him, India was left with nothing. Unlike his predecessors, who carefully kept ties bipartisan, Modi politicised the relationship.

He alienated the Democrats by openly siding with Trump. And when Trump himself went cold, there were no Republicans lining up to save the partnership either. India now has no institutional base in Washington. What was once a consensus on engaging India has splintered into suspicion and indifference.

Blindsided by Trump’s tariffs and his embrace of Pakistan, Modi is now turning, most awkwardly, to Beijing. His upcoming trip to Tianjin for the 2025 SCO Summit will be his first to China in seven years. Far from projecting confidence, it reeks of desperation. The Chinese foreign minister has already been to Delhi, making all the right noises while quietly reminding India how much ground it has lost.

Beijing hasn’t forgotten Modi’s earlier choices: signing the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) with the United States, effectively opening Indian bases to American forces besides boycotting the Belt and Road Initiative launch in 2017 and railing against China for the past five years.

Nor has Beijing forgiven. In 2020, Chinese troops seized territory along the Line of Actual Control and have held on ever since. During that showdown, Beijing didn’t just humiliate India; it doubled down on its support for Pakistan.

China’s charm offensive is purely tactical. Beijing is dangling promises of rare earths, fertilisers and industrial machinery that India badly needs, but it has made no real concessions. It has not eased its support for Pakistan; in fact, after visiting Delhi, Wang Yi flew to Kabul for a trilateral with Afghanistan and Pakistan, and then on to Islamabad for a bilateral strategic dialogue.

Nor has China shifted on territorial disputes. Instead, it is exploiting Modi’s vulnerability to signal to Trump that Beijing has alternatives. Xi Jinping knows Modi has nowhere else to turn. By entertaining his overtures, China gains leverage without offering anything in return. Modi’s pivot to Beijing after years of hostility only makes India appear opportunistic, an unreliable partner to either of the world’s superpowers.

The irony couldn’t be more palpable. Washington now sees India as a supplicant tied to Trump’s mood swings. Beijing sees Modi as a weak leader it can toy with. India has managed to alienate both sides, losing the careful balance that Dr Singh had once maintained. In the name of bold leadership, Modi has left India looking unreliable and adrift.

Even before Trump’s tariffs and China’s recent manoeuvres, India’s regional standing was already deteriorating. Modi’s hyper-nationalism at home spilled over into neighbourhood diplomacy. His hardline approach to Pakistan — threats to ‘take back’ Pakistan-administered Kashmir and scrapping Article 370 — hardened Islamabad’s hostility. China responded by doubling down on military and diplomatic support for Pakistan.

Relations with Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have also soured. Where India once enjoyed trust and cultural affinity, it now faces scepticism and resentment. China, meanwhile, has stepped into the breach — building ports, funding roads and tightening its grip on South Asia. Instead of cementing India’s leadership in the neighbourhood, Modi’s policies have badly eroded it.

In any case, a country divided internally can scarcely project strength abroad. The Modi government’s Hindutva push has left India fractured, with Muslims, Christians, Sikhs and Dalits pushed to the margins.

Protests, communal violence and suppression of dissent have become routine. Global watchdogs and human rights groups describe India as a ‘majoritarian autocracy’. This loss of democratic credibility undermines diplomacy. Potential partners are wary of a government repressive at home. Investors are cautious in a climate where ideology trumps the rule of law. Modi’s foreign trips, heavy on optics and light on outcomes, cannot disguise that weakness.

The picture that emerges is of a friendless India. The US has turned hostile, reducing India to a pawn in Trump’s transactional games. China is happy to string Modi along but has no intention of giving up strategic domination. Russia has drifted firmly into Beijing’s camp. Closer home, India’s neighbours increasingly turn to China for trade, infrastructure and diplomatic cover.

Far from being the ‘Vishwaguru’ Modi and his minions were busy projecting the country as, India’s international stature is possibly at its lowest ebb in modern times.

To recover lost ground, India will have to turn away from Modi’s nationalist grandstanding and get back to basics — make peace with neighbours, be inclusive at home and pursue pragmatic non-alignment abroad. That formula once gave India growth and credibility. It can once again. The choice is stark.

The current foreign policy drift — lurching between Washington and Beijing, while being mistrusted by both and its neighbours too — can only aggravate India’s present irrelevance at the global high table. To salvage its standing in the world, India needs to restore its democratic foundations and rebuild a foreign policy that is strategic rather than theatrical.

Sadly, Modi has shown no appetite for such a reset.

Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden. More of his writing may be read here