BJP in a bind in Maharashtra as Shinde insists on being treated like Nitish

Caretaker chief minister Eknath Shinde’s sudden departure for his village in Satara on Friday set the cat among the pigeons in Maharashtra's political circles.

Shinde was unhappy at the BJP’s insistence that the new chief minister would be from its ranks as it has emerged as the single largest party in the state assembly with 132 seats in the 288-member House, suggested some reports. Whenever he leaves for his village, he usually returns to make major announcements, said his party colleague Sanjay Shirsat on Friday.

On Saturday, Shirsat was even more explicit and declared that the Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena should get the home portfolio even if the chief minister is from the BJP. The portfolio has been held by previous deputy chief ministers too, he pointed out.

Shirsat certainly appears to have the blessings of the party leader who, reported the New Indian Express, had conveyed to Union home minister Amit Shah that the finance, home and housing development departments should be left to him if he is replaced as chief minister.

Other reports claimed that Shinde had bluntly told Shah that Devendra Fadnavis, the BJP frontrunner for the chief minister’s office, cannot be his boss, and offered outside support to the BJP-NCP (Ajit Pawar) government if his demands are not met. Shinde himself and his party, said Shirsat, were averse to him moving to the Centre.

Sena spokesperson Uday Samant, however, said Shinde was unwell, and denied that he was upset. “He is suffering from fever and cold…To say that he is upset will not be appropriate…" Shinde himself told reporters in his village of Daregaon that he had “throat pain” and would talk to them later.

As the allies in the Mahayuti sharpened their knives, the coalition partners sought to allay doubts about growing fissures. The caretaker chief minister was already complaining of a sore throat and cold while in Delhi, sources within the BJP claimed, and had left for his village in Satara for a well-deserved rest. The new chief minister, they claimed, would be sworn in on 5 December, Tuesday, and the caretaker chief minister would return to Mumbai either later on Saturday or on Sunday.

With the assembly election results declared on 23 November, there already has been a delay of a week in government-formation despite the landslide victory and the brute majority of the Mahayuti. Every day’s delay is highlighting the problems within the alliance and the BJP, which does not have a leader of stature with a following across the state.

Even Fadnavis, the tallest leader of the party in the state, has limited regional appeal and his performance as state home minister has been both poor and controversial. With elections for local bodies and the prestigious BMC (BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation) imminent, the BJP would require the support of the Shinde Sena to consolidate its position and win. Dumping Shinde, insiders warn, would be a strategic mistake and send the wrong signal to the Marathas.   

The BJP (132 seats) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) with 41 seats can comfortably form the government, though, and do not need the support of the SS (Shinde) with 56 seats. Moreover, the BJP has set the precedent by accepting Nitish Kumar as chief minister of Bihar, though his Janata Dal (United) has fewer members in the House than the BJP. By the same logic, Shinde appears to have argued, the BJP should have no problem accepting him as chief minister, especially after helping delivering the state.

There is also intense speculation that if Shinde is replaced as chief minister, it would throw a lifeline to the beleaguered Uddhav Thackeray with 20 seats in the Assembly, 10 of them won in Mumbai.