Kerala: The Syrian Christian vote and the economics of rubber

The arrest of Sister Preeti Mary and Sister Vandana Francis on 25 July at Durg railway station, Chhattisgarh at the instigation of right-wing Hindu elements set off a controversy in Kerala. The two nuns — who belong to a congregation under the Syro-Malabar Church based in Cherthala, Kerala — were accused by a Bajrang Dal worker of trafficking the young tribal girls travelling with them.

Booked for forcible religious conversion, the incident quite understandably aroused strong emotions in their home state, with the church appealing to the Central government for their release.

It was on 2 August, when both nuns were granted bail by the Bilaspur court, that the issue took a political turn. The ruling CPI(M) state secretary M.V. Govindan attacked the church for thanking the prime minister so effusively. Some functionaries even took a cake to the local RSS office. The whole thing, he said, smacked of fascism. He particularly targeted the Archbishop, Mar Joseph Pamplany, for being opportunistic and inconsistent in his stance towards Hindu right-wing attacks on Christians.

Defending its words, and actions, the church responded by calling Govindan’s remarks “second-rate” and asking whether it needed the permission of the ‘AKG Centre’ [shorthand for CPI(M) party headquarters] to issue a public statement. The tit-for-tat touchiness revealed a sore spot — the church’s sensitivity to any allegations of going soft on the BJP — charges that have been getting stronger over time.

Kerala’s Christians are a substantial minority — some 18.38 per cent of the state’s population according to the last census — and a visibly successful community, both economically and politically. The majority of them belong to different branches of the Syrian Orthodox Church, a recognised body of the Roman Catholic Church.

Tracing their origin to St Thomas, one of the apostles of Christ believed to have landed in Kerala, they are known as St Thomas Christians. Syrian here does not refer to ethnicity — Syrian Christians are 100 per cent Malayali — but only to historical and liturgical connections. Latin Christians, better known as Roman Catholics, and a handful of Protestants make up the rest.

Given their landed wealth, the Syrian Christians have played an outsize role in state politics, and because of their conservative orientation, they have traditionally been supporters of the Congress. However, the relationship of the church with politics and government is a complex one, mediated by the changing demographics and migration patterns of Kerala.

While the church and its secular arm, the Kerala Congress, is close to the Congress-led front in Kerala, the church has slowly and warily tried to reach an understanding with the BJP, who it does not want to antagonise.

The BJP’s outreach among the Christians, in a bid to unite against the CPI(M), has found enough sympathetic ears. Those Christians who support the BJP see it as a necessary counterweight to the authoritarian politics of the CPI(M), especially its student wing, the Students' Federation of India (SFI).

A major shift is underway in Kerala, especially among the Christians. The younger generation is leaving agriculture behind to embrace modernity and the digital world. With no one to tend the land, many families are selling their property to wealthy Muslims, which in turn is shifting societal attitudes to change.

The church is not immune to these shifts: it should be noted that a section of the church backed the campaign against ‘love jihad’, much to the consternation of both the CPI(M) and the Congress.

The economics of rubber also come into play. Kerala’s rubber plantations — an overwhelming majority owned by Syrian Christians — are in bad shape due to infestations of fungi-causing pests and falling rubber prices. They look to New Delhi for succour — in the form of an increase in the minimum support price for rubber. This is something only the BJP can do. Hence, overtures by prelates like Pamplany.

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‘Vote chori’ in Thrissur

When well-known actor Suresh Gopi won the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat in 2024, many were taken aback at this breach in a formidable anti-BJP bastion. It marked the first time a BJP candidate had won a major election; and it also signalled a growing acceptance of the BJP in a state dominated by the Congress and Left front.

At the same time, the BJP’s vote share in the state increased from 15 to 20 per cent. Analysts attributed this jump to changing political dynamics, and the success of the BJP’s ‘subaltern Hindu’ strategy of focusing on lower castes, plus the votes gained from the Christian ‘upper crust’ — an interesting aspect of the shift.

According to G. Gopakumar, former vice-chancellor of Kerala’s Central University, given the integration of Hindu elements in Christian rituals — a well-observed phenomenon in sociology — it was not difficult, nor outrageous, for Christians to move towards the Hindu party.

This wisdom is now being questioned amid credible allegations of voter fraud in the Thrissur constituency, raising serious doubts about whether the BJP won fair and square. Even in the run-up to the 2024 election, Congress party workers had pointed to the huge surge in voter registration: 1,47,000 voters were added (as opposed to 63,000 in 2019), the highest in Kerala.

CPI(M) leader Thomas Isaac says, “In 2024, even a postcard to an address was accepted (as proof of residence); now even Aadhaar is not. In 2024, the average voter increase in Kerala was only 80,000, but in Thrissur it was 1.45 lakh. Then, the BJP wanted to add fake voters, now it wants to delete genuine voters (in Bihar) to steal the election.”

Several examples give credence to this theory. For instance, in booth number 69 in Avanisseri panchayat, local media reported that all the voters listed from 1432 to 1563 were fake. In many cases, migrants’ names had been added to genuine addresses. But there were no major projects in Thrissur which could explain an influx of workers.

With the Congress’s ‘vote chori’ campaign gaining momentum across the country, one is reminded that the price of liberty is eternal vigilance.