Modi in Manipur: why now?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s long-anticipated visit to Manipur on Saturday arrives over two years after ethnic violence first engulfed the state, leaving more than 260 dead, tens of thousands displaced, and deep social fault lines exposed.

The visit, brief and densely scheduled, marks his first physical return since the May 2023 Meitei-Kuki clashes erupted and spiraled into one of Northeast India’s worst crises in decades. Both in Manipur and across the country, questions abound: Why now, after so long? What prompted this sudden burst of prime ministerial attention to a state still simmering with tension and resentment?

The delayed journey: compulsion and calculation

The timing of Modi’s visit has stirred considerable debate. For over two years, the PM’s absence in Manipur was a target of persistent opposition criticism and public frustration. Parties like the Congress repeatedly accused Modi and the central government of “abandoning” the state, with a chorus amplifying after harrowing visuals of sexual violence and mass displacement circulated in the national media in mid-2023.

Multiple parliamentary interventions and statements from New Delhi failed to quell cynicism about the Centre’s commitment to healing Manipur’s wounds.

So what prompts this visit now? Several factors intersect:

• National and International Scrutiny: Persistent negative coverage, including international attention to human rights in Manipur, likely increased the political cost of continued detachment from the issue.
• President’s Rule and Political Stakes: With Manipur under President’s Rule since February 2025 and prospects for fresh assembly elections on the horizon, the optics of PM Modi making an outreach hold direct electoral relevance, both for the state and the BJP’s larger northeastern strategy.
• Restoring Credibility: The government is keen to signal that normalcy is returning, especially as the fragile calm remains punctuated by outbreaks of violence and bandhs. Launching new infrastructure initiatives and meeting victims is positioned as a reaffirmation of central engagement and responsibility.

Competing expectations: hostility and hope

Ground reports from Manipur on the eve of the visit paint a picture of divided sentiment. Many view the visit as “too little, too late,” with the prime minister’s absence during the peak of the crisis having inflicted a lasting dent on people’s faith in New Delhi’s empathy and administrative capacity.

Activists and several local groups—especially in Churachandpur, the Kuki-Zo stronghold, and Imphal, the Meitei-dominated valley—see the agenda as symbolic rather than substantive, emphasizing the brevity and managed optics of the three-hour sojourn.

Reports suggest:

• Boycott Calls: Valley-based insurgent umbrella outfit Corcom has called for a boycott of Modi’s public events, reflecting continued suspicion from Meitei organizations.
• Protest and Vandalism: In Churachandpur, event venues faced vandalism and removal of decorations; public resentment about neglect and unaddressed justice claims runs high.
• Relief Camp Fatigue: With thousands still languishing in relief camps, especially from the Kuki-Zo community, expectations are centered on concrete relief, compensation, and safety assurances—not just symbolic engagements.

The official agenda: large packages, carefully drawn lines

The prime minister’s itinerary is tightly scripted. He will:

• Inaugurate and lay foundation stones for projects worth over Rs 8,500 crore, including the Manipur Police Headquarters (Rs 101 crore), Civil Secretariat (Rs 538 crore), major road and infrastructure schemes, and digital initiatives like the Manipur Infotech Development (MIND) project ( Rs 550 crore).
• Meet victims of the violence, particularly in Churachandpur (Kuki-majority) and Imphal (Meitei-majority), while avoiding broader civil society and MLA dialogues, reportedly to minimize unpredictability.
• Address short public meetings in both communities, aiming to project an image of inclusiveness, but in reality, holding two separate events to reflect Manipur’s stark segregation.

Notably, there is no announced all-party meet, open town hall, or initiative to bring both warring communities together under a single platform during the visit. This has invited criticism that the healing touch being offered may fall short of genuine reconciliation.

Healing touch or political optics?

Can this visit restore peace or is it merely a managed spectacle? Analysts and ground observers are skeptical:

• Symbolism vs. Substance: Manipur’s wounds remain raw; an apology or acknowledgment of delayed attention could help, but without bold new measures on justice, relief, and accountability, large project announcements may feel hollow to those directly affected by the violence.
• Limited Engagement: Many feel the absence of meetings with opposition MLAs, social organizations, and victims’ groups signals a preference for spectacle over hard dialogue and reconciliation.
• Electoral Undercurrents: The visit doubles as a signal to the region ahead of possible assembly elections, trying to regain ground for the BJP in a state that has drifted out of its political and administrative grip since 2024.

Manipur’s demands: will the centre deliver?

People’s demands from the visit are clear:

• Permanent resettlement and rehabilitation for the tens of thousands still in relief camps.
• Justice and accountability for the crimes committed during the violence—many atrocities, including heinous acts against women, remain unaddressed.
• Greater security guarantees, especially for minorities and those in contested areas, amid ongoing law and order failures.
• More inclusive talks involving both communities to address the demands for justice, autonomy, and guarantees of non-recurrence.

Anything less risks being written off as performative politics.

Too little, too late—or better late than never?

No single high-profile visit can undo two years of trauma or address deep structural divides. Yet in a region long accustomed to being peripheral to the national imagination, even belated attention carries meaning. For Modi and the BJP, the hope is that the visit can at least signal a willingness to engage and a readiness to spend political capital on Manipur’s future.

For Manipur’s people, the skepticism is profound — but so is the yearning for substantive change, justice, and the restoration of normalcy. Whether Modi’s trip marks a turning point or merely another chapter in a protracted crisis will be judged not by today’s announcements, but by what follows in the fraught months ahead.
*Modi’s visit to Manipur is a high-stakes gamble — one that could either lay the groundwork for peace or deepen the rift further if the promises of healing and justice again prove elusive.

Hasnain Naqvi is a former member of the history faculty at St. Xavier’s College, Mumbai