T20 World Cup: India will sweep Group A, Pakistan an easy second

Group A: India, Pakistan, USA, Netherlands, Namibia

The build-up to the T20 World Cup has been far from ideal and now, the announcement of Pakistan forfeiting the all-important game against hosts India takes the sheen off the action in the first week. The question is: can it affect the chances of the two prospective qualifiers from the group to Super Eight?

My answer is no. While defending champions India are a certainty to emerge as group toppers, it’s difficult to look beyond former champions Pakistan for the second spot. Granted that T20 is an unpredictable format and teams like the USA and Netherlands have shown spunk in the past, but Salman Ali Agha’s men looked in ominous form in the short home series against Australia.

India (Odds: 13/8 to 13/5)

The awesome record of reigning champions India in this format, ever since winning the 2024 World Cup in the US and Caribbean, makes them odds-on favourites. They have won eight bilateral T20I series in the last year-and-a-half, and the Asia Cup and looked the most settled in this format, even though their record in red-ball cricket and ODIs has taken the occasional beating.

Strength: The Men in Blue have taken the art of T20 batting to the next level and are expected to carry on in the same vein, with opener Abhishek Sharma consistently wreaking havoc in the powerplay for the past year. The middle order has looked as explosive, with captain Suryakumar Yadav signalling a welcome return to form after being Player of the Series against New Zealand (242 runs, strike rate 196.74), Tilak Verma set for a comeback after an injury-induced lay-off and comeback man Ishan Kishan providing the X-factor.

Weakness:  If there is one question in a star-studded batting line-up which runs down to number eight, it’s about Sharma's opening partner. Sanju Samson suddenly seems to have a confidence crisis and the biggest beneficiary of this could be Ishan, who was handed the wicketkeeping gloves in the final T20I against New Zealand.

The other point of concern is that they could have done with a bit more experience to the fast bowling department. Harshit Rana does not have the experience of playing World Cups and him being the third pacer after Jasprit Bumrah and Arshdeep Singh could be a risky move in the knockout stages.

Full squad: Suryakumar Yadav (C), Jasprit Bumrah, Abhishek Sharma, Harshit Rana, Sanju Samson, Arshdeep Singh, Tilak Varma, Kuldeep Yadav, Hardik Pandya, Varun Chakravarthy, Shivam Dube, Washington Sundar, Axar Patel, Ishan Kishan (WK), Rinku Singh.

Pakistan (Odds: 14/1 to 20/1)

The selective boycott of the league game against India may cloud the 2009 champions’ prospects of making it to the Super Eight, but only just. They should be able to go over the line against opponents like the USA, Netherlands and Namibia easily to be second finishers in the group and then hope to produce an inspirational performance like the one that propelled them to the semi-finals in 2021.

Strength: Pakistan can strike early as few teams can in the first six overs, if Shaheen Afridi derives some swing with the new ball and Naseem Shah hits the hard lengths. Colombo’s pitches may offer just enough assistance for the fast bowlers, while the spin department is well-stocked with Abrar Ahmed and Usman Tariq providing specialist options for the middle overs, during which experienced leggie Shadab Khan and Mohammad Nawaz can keep things in control too.

On the batting front, Saim Ayub and Fakhar Zaman are natural aggressors during the powerplay, while Babar Azam offers stability when early fireworks don’t go as planned. Skipper Salman Agha — despite flying under the radar — and Shadab have the ability to adapt batting plans according to conditions rather than rigidly sticking to a template.

Weakness: It will be interesting to see whether the green shirts miss their express fast bowler Haris Rauf, who has been dropped due to his tendency to leak runs. The other key absentee will be wicketkeeper-batter Mohammed Rizwan, who could have added much-needed solidity to the line-up.

The team also has overlapping options in the batting line-up with Usman Khan, Sahibzada Farhan and Khawaja Mohammad Nafay all vying for roles. A clear role definition will be crucial, whether it’s a powerplay hitter, a middle-overs anchor or a finisher. Otherwise, ambiguity could hurt performance.

Full squad: Salman Ali Agha (c), Abrar Ahmed, Babar Azam, Faheem Ashraf, Fakhar Zaman, Khawaja Mohammad Nafay, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Salman Mirza, Naseem Shah, Sahibzada Farhan, Saim Ayub, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Shadab Khan, Usman Khan, Usman Tariq.