Is Bihar ready to usher in change?

When you read this piece, Bihar will be half-way into its two-phase state assembly election. At the time of going to press, on the eve of Phase 1, only the reckless would wager on the likely results, one way or the other.

Nonetheless, most pundits whose arguments sound internally consistent were expecting a tight race. The fact that most of them do not see a wave despite the depressing state of Bihar may seem counter-intuitive at a surface level — after all, if things are so bad (more on that presently), shouldn’t the desire for change be overwhelming? You’d think so.

But we have to remember that Bihar is also riven along caste lines, which critically determines how people vote in this state. It is so pathetically backward that election-time blandishments (read: cash transfers) can practically neutralise anti-incumbency. And when the referee itself — you know who — is partisan, then all bets have to be off.

State of the State

If it weren’t for these imponderables, and the election was about the state of the state or the performance of the incumbent government and its current leadership, Bihar should be at a point of desperation.

Here’s why:

Economy

• Per capita income. As of 2023–24, Bihar’s per capita net state domestic product (NSDP) was the lowest among all Indian states — at Rs 60,337 (current prices), which is about 30 per cent of the national average of Rs 1,84,903.

• Poverty rate. According to the NITI Aayog’s Multidimensional Poverty Index (2023), 33.8 per cent of Bihar’s population (over 36 million people) lives in multidimensional poverty, compared to the national average of 15 per cent. Bihar accounts for 9 per cent of the country’s population but is home to 27 per cent of India’s poor.

• Unemployment rate. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2022–23 reports Bihar’s urban unemployment rate at 13.4 per cent, more than double the national average of 6.1 per cent.

Education

• Literacy rate. The 2011 census (latest comprehensive data, with NSO estimates for 2023 showing marginal improvement) pegs Bihar’s literacy rate at 61.8 per cent (male: 71.2 per cent, female: 51.5 per cent), the lowest in India, versus the national average of 74 per cent.

Health and nutrition

• Bihar’s infant mortality rate (IMR) is 27 per 1,000 live births, over twice the national average of 12. As per NFHS-5 (National Family Health Survey) data, 43 per cent of children under five in Bihar are stunted (national: 35.5 per cent) and 32.5 per cent wasted (national: 19.3 per cent). Anaemia affects 63.5 per cent of women aged 15-49, the highest in India. Life expectancy is estimated at 68.1 years (2020-25 projections from Sample Registration System), below the national 70.2 years.

And, as per UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), Bihar ranks last among all states, with an HDI (Human Development Index) of 0.613 (2022), compared to India’s national average of 0.633 and top state Kerala’s 0.790.

An estimated 1–3 crore Biharis have fled (you’ve heard ‘palayan’ during the campaign) to earn a living in other states. Bihar’s unemployment rate, as per the latest PLFS data released in 2024, is 53 per cent higher than the national average.

And yet, the total (self-declared) assets of Bihar’s sitting MLAs is Rs 1,122 crore (average per MLA: Rs 4.65 crore), as per analyses by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR).

Doesn’t that sound like the state needs to shake up things?

The Face of Change

The face of possible change in Bihar is former deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav, who is exhorting people to join him in creating a ‘naya Bihar’. The Mahagathbandhan slogan, he points out, is not simply ‘badlo sarkar’ but also ‘badlo Bihar’.

He is sidestepping slanging matches with NDA leaders, who are busy badmouthing him, focusing instead on the life and livelihood issues of ‘padhai, kamai, seenchai’ (education, employment, irrigation) as also ‘sunwai’ and ‘kaarrawai’ (an accessible, transparent, decisive government committed to time-bound implementation of policy measures).

Asked where he’ll find a government job for every family and the funds to pay for it, he says his team has analysed the caste census data, consulted experts and has a plan ready. “I’m not one to make loose promises,” he says calmly. “‘Tejashwi Pran’ is an implementable vision for a new Bihar.”

He does not criticise the pre-poll cash transfer to Jeevika Didis by the NDA government. “I wouldn’t call them ‘doles’; it’s badly needed. One can’t ask people to wait for bigger reforms to bear fruit when they are struggling to meet their basic needs. We have to provide them with interim relief till infrastructure and employment catch up. This is about survival and basic human dignity,” he explains.

“Bihar wants change,” he says, “…because people are really fed up with this corrupt government.” They’ve ruled for 20 years, but Bihar is still the poorest state; ‘palayan’ (migration) and ‘berozgari’ (unemployment) are the highest and per capita income the lowest in the country, he repeats in his poll rallies. There are no industries, no investment in the state. “Yuva log Bihar mein ee khatara sarkar kyon jheli?” he asks in Bhojpuri. (Why should the youth of Bihar put up with this good-for-nothing, dysfunctional government?)

“We see job creation not as a cost but as an investment in the people of the state,” he says. “We can create many jobs in the social sector, especially in health and education; not only will this generate largescale employment, it’ll also improve our schools, healthcare centres, and water and electricity supply. It will have a multiplier effect,” he tells an interviewer.

Asked about ‘friendly fights’ in the INDIA alliance, he counters: “Bihar is complex. It is not a state where one formula works everywhere. Each constituency has its own unique dynamic, history and social milieu. If people in a particular constituency or region have different leanings or aspirations, they must have (political) options…

“That said, we are united in our larger objective of ousting this government. The most important thing is that we know the real adversary and we are fighting together.”

What the Pundits Say

As noted earlier, poll pundits aren’t really sticking their necks out to name favourites. But some observations merit consideration. A hot topic of discussion is the future of chief minister Nitish Kumar. The NDA maintains that he is leading their alliance but has not named him as their CM-designate.

Nearly every analyst worth their salt reads this as a sign that this may be the end of the road for Nitish, but despite his unconvincing recent public appearances, Nitish cannot be written off. To pull the potentially decisive EBC vote and the women of the state, the NDA have nobody better — and they know it.

What the NDA strategists have not bargained for, it seems, is the possibility that crafty Nitish has seen the threatening knife, even through the fog of ill-health. His conspicuous absence from Modi’s roadshow in Patna and his quick exit at the presscon where the NDA unveiled its manifesto were telltale signs.

Analysts have also discounted ‘the Modi factor’ in this election, arguing that he is no longer a draw and his campaign rhetoric — which harped on the themes of ‘jungle raj’ (if the INDIA bloc was voted in) and the BJP’s assorted polarising mantras — had so little impact that the NDA had to make copycat promises about government jobs.

Is that a sign, then, that Bihar is ready for change? We’ll find out on 14 November.