T20 World Cup: After Protea shock, how can champions India make the semis?

A wake-up call or a reminder that defending a World Cup under pressure at home is just not another of the numerous bilateral jousts? Either way, the Men in Blue’s heaviest defeat in T20 World Cup history by 76 runs to a clinical South African team in their opening game of the Super 8 stage has just made their route to the semi-finals a little difficult.

It’s not for nothing that the shortest format in the game is considered as the most unpredictable one – and the ebb and flow of the Ahmedabad game bears testimony to it. Who would have thought that the Proteas, who were reduced to 20 for three by the fourth over, would then ride a game changing 97-run partnership between David Miller and Dewald Brevis before their bowlers throttled the high-flying Indian batting line-up.

‘’One defeat doesn’t change anything,’’ captain Suryakumar Yadav batted for his teammates after the game. ''My thing is sometimes you’ve got to think that if you’re chasing 180-185, you can’t win the game in the powerplay, but you might lose the game in the powerplay. We lost too many wickets in the powerplay and then we couldn’t have those small partnerships which we wanted for chasing 180-185, but that’s part of the game."

There was a clear problem in execution from the Indian batters when they faced a record target of 188 but in conditions when dew kicked in and batting had become easier. Only on the eve of the match, Surya had called upon his teammates to respond as per the situation and reminded that if they failed to get off to a flier in powerplay, then they would try to consolidate things between seventh and 15^th over.    

 It was Ishan Kishan, who has had a good tournament so far, who fell into the trap of going for a slog against the part time off spin of Aiden Markram in the very first over after being kept quiet for three balls. Abhishek Sharma, who struck two delightful fours to finally get his first runs, failed to read a knuckle ball from the beanpole Marco Jansen and was caught brilliantly by Corbin Bosch despite him and Keshav Maharaj colliding badly between mid wicket and mid on.

The headline writers may be tempted to work on the revenge theme for the heartbreak South Africa endured when they lost the 2024 World T20 final to India by nine runs, but captain Markram thought it was far from it. There is however no doubt that the current batch of South Africans, who may lack on the celebrity quotient as some of their past teams, have been visiting the Indian shores extremely well prepared – repeatedly denting the Indian pride like in the two-Test series in Kolkata and Guwahati last November and now this high profile game.

Moving on, what does the Indian team have to do to make sure of the semi-finals? They will have to take the pressure in their stride to win both of their remaining matches - against West Indies and Zimbabwe - to guarantee their spot in the last four of the competition. However, if they win just one match, their qualification will depend on other results and Net Run Rate (NRR).

A look at possible scenarios: 

India win both their games: If India win both of their matches, they will have four points from two matches - it should be enough to reach the semi-final unless two other teams also have four points. That can happen if South Africa win just one of their remaining matches and the winner of the match between West Indies and Zimbabwe also beat South Africa. In that case, India's qualification will come down to the tricky NRR.

India win one of their remaining matches: If India win just one match, they will need South Africa to win all of their matches. The other condition in this scenario will be that India’s win will have to come against the winner of the West Indies-Zimbabwe match. In that case, India, Zimbabwe and West Indies will have two points each. Once again, the reigning champions’ qualification will completely depend on NRR.

Remaining fixtures

23 February: West Indies vs Zimbabwe (Mumbai)

26 February: South Africa vs West Indies (Ahmedabad)   

26 February: India vs Zimbabwe (Chennai)     

1 March: South Africa vs Zimbabwe (Delhi)     

1 March: India vs West Indies (Kolkata)