Tomato, potato inflation boosts thali costs in November

The average cost of a vegetarian thali rose by 7 per cent, while the cost of a non-vegetarian thali edged up by 2 per cent in November, primarily driven by a sharp increase in the prices of tomatoes and potatoes.

Together, these vegetables account for about 26 per cent of the total cost of a thali, according to CRISIL Ratings' monthly Roti Rice Rate (RRR) indicator, which tracks changes in the cost of a typical Indian meal.

Key drivers of the price surge

Tomato prices skyrocketed by 35 per cent to Rs 53 per kg in November, up from Rs 40 in the same month last year. Meanwhile, potato prices increased even more sharply, climbing 50 per cent to Rs 37 per kg from Rs 25 last year.

CRISIL attributed this surge to a 20 per cent year-on-year decline in crop arrivals, exacerbated by late blight infestation in key growing regions such as Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat.

Additionally, prices of pulses rose by 10 per cent, driven by reduced opening stocks and lower pipeline supplies. However, CRISIL noted that fresh arrivals in December are expected to provide some relief.

Vegetable oil prices also saw a significant rise of 13 per cent, driven by increased import duties and robust demand during the festive and wedding season.

Fuel costs provide some relief

One factor that helped mitigate the overall cost increase was an 11 per cent drop in LPG prices. The cost of a 14.2 kg cylinder in Delhi fell to Rs 803 in November, down from Rs 903 in the same month last year. This reduction played a critical role in preventing further escalation in thali costs.

Non-veg thali benefits from broiler price drop

For the non-vegetarian thali, which includes chicken instead of dal, the cost increase was curtailed by a 3 per cent decline in broiler prices. Chicken contributes approximately 50 per cent to the total cost of a non-veg thali.

On a month-on-month basis, the cost of a vegetarian thali decreased by 2 per cent in November, while the cost of a non-vegetarian thali remained stable.

CRISIL noted that tomato prices fell by 17 per cent in October due to fresh supplies from Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat. However, limited arrivals in November prevented further reductions.

An increase in the prices of other key ingredients — vegetable oil, onions, and potatoes — by 4 per cent, 4 per cent, and 1 per cent, respectively, offset potential declines in the thali cost. For non-vegetarian thalis, a 2 per cent rise in broiler prices contributed to price stability.

Regional and ingredient dynamics

CRISIL’s thali cost calculation considers the prices of essential inputs, including cereals, pulses, vegetables, spices, edible oil, and cooking gas, across the four regions of India — north, south, east, and west. The report reflects the financial impact on the common man, capturing fluctuations in everyday essentials.

A vegetarian thali typically comprises roti, rice, dal, vegetables (onion, tomato, and potato), curd, and salad. In contrast, a non-vegetarian thali replaces dal with chicken.

The report highlights the volatile nature of food prices and their impact on household expenses, emphasising the interplay between agricultural yields, supply chains, and consumer demand.

While December may bring some relief with the arrival of new pulses stocks, other costs could remain subject to market dynamics.