Current climate pledges to cut emissions by just 6 pc by 2035, far off track: UN

Global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to fall by just six per cent below 2019 levels by 2035 under countries’ current climate pledges, leaving the world substantially off track to limit global warming, according to a United Nations report released on Tuesday.

The 2026 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report, published by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said emissions could decline by 9% if all commitments, including conditional targets, were fully implemented.

The findings come days after another UN report said the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C was now out of reach, with the world needing to restrict the temperature rise to around 1.8°C and subsequently bring it down.

The latest report said the new generation of NDCs was increasingly linked to long-term decarbonisation targets, with countries aiming to achieve net-zero emissions between 2040 and 2070. Most have set 2050 as their target year.

Implementing the NDCs alongside these longer-term targets would result in estimated warming of 1.7–2.3°C by the end of the century, the report said.

“Returning warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would require substantial additional GHG emission reductions in the coming years,” it added.

The assessment examined 127 new NDCs, representing 154 parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement, submitted between 1 January 2024 and 31 August 2026.

Under the agreement, countries determine their own climate actions, while each successive round of pledges is expected to represent progress beyond existing commitments.

The report also noted that climate action was becoming more deeply embedded across economies and societies. Increasingly, national pledges involve local and regional authorities, civil society organisations and the private sector in planning, implementing and monitoring climate measures.

However, the UN assessment stressed that substantially deeper emissions cuts would be needed to curb global warming.