China’s population shrinks for fourth year as births fall 17 pc in 2025

China’s population continued to decline in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of contraction, as the number of births fell sharply despite a decade of policy shifts aimed at encouraging larger families.

Official data released on Monday showed China’s total population stood at 1.404 billion in 2025, down by about three million from the previous year. The figures highlight the scale of the demographic challenge confronting the world’s second-most populous country.

Births dropped to 7.92 million in 2025, a decline of 1.62 million or 17 per cent compared with the previous year. The data indicate that a slight rise in births recorded in 2024 did not signal a sustained turnaround. Prior to that, the number of births had fallen for seven consecutive years through 2023.

Measured by birth rate, the trend is even starker. The birth rate in 2025 fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people, the lowest level on record, according to the data.

China’s demographic slowdown comes more than a decade after the country ended its decades-long one-child policy, which had restricted most families to a single child. The limit was raised to two children in 2015 and further expanded to three children in 2021, as authorities sought to counter a rapidly ageing population and a shrinking workforce.

However, the policy changes have so far had limited impact. Many families cite the high cost of raising children, intense academic and social competition, and job insecurity as major deterrents to having more children.

These pressures have been compounded by a prolonged economic slowdown that has strained household finances.

Although China does not regularly publish fertility rates, the government last put the figure at 1.3 in 2020. Demographers now estimate it may be closer to 1, far below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain population size.

In recent years, authorities have rolled out a mix of incentives and regulatory measures to boost births. In July, the government announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan (about USD 500) per child for families. At the same time, China removed contraceptives, including condoms, from a value-added tax exemption list in 2025, subjecting them to a 13 per cent tax from 1 January.

Other measures include adding kindergartens, day-care services and matchmaking services to tax-exemption lists, as part of broader efforts to promote marriage and child-rearing.

China lost its position as the world’s most populous country in 2023, when it was overtaken by India, a shift that underscored the long-term implications of its demographic decline.