Intel warns of rising infiltration via Nepal border ahead of Bangladesh polls

Indian intelligence agencies are sounding the alarm over a growing and unsettling shift in illegal infiltration patterns, as Bangladeshis increasingly attempt to enter India through the porous Nepal border — a route now emerging as a preferred corridor for traffickers amid tightening security along the Indo-Bangladesh frontier.

Officials say 2025 has already witnessed multiple interceptions of Bangladeshi nationals attempting to cross into India via Nepal, a trend they describe as both new and ominous. With the Indo-Bangladesh border under heightened surveillance, touts operating in Bangladesh — often in coordination with their Indian counterparts — are redirecting their operations northward, exploiting the relative openness of the Nepal route.

The change comes against the backdrop of deepening instability in Bangladesh following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, which has plunged the country into violence and unrest. Indian agencies, already on high alert, have foiled several infiltration attempts into West Bengal and the northeastern states during this period, prompting traffickers to seek alternate pathways.

One such route runs through Raxaul in Bihar’s East Champaran district, where officials say infiltrators are “testing the waters.” While current numbers remain modest, agencies warn that attempts could multiply rapidly once the network perfects its logistics. Intelligence inputs also point to infiltration bids through districts such as Bahraich, Gonda and Balrampur.

In response, the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), which guards the Indo-Nepal border, has mounted a sweeping security operation. As many as 1,700 personnel have been deployed for intensive combing operations in forested border areas, while nearly 9,000 troops have been positioned across sensitive districts including Pilibhit, Bahraich, Shravasti, Balrampur, Siddharthnagar and Maharajganj.

“The Nepal border is a growing concern,” an Intelligence Bureau official said, revealing that a large number of Bangladeshis are currently sheltering in Nepal’s border regions, lying in wait for the opportune moment to slip into India. Many of them, the official said, have been stationed there for extended periods.

While the route may have changed, the underlying objective remains familiar, officials warn — altering demographic patterns and, more disturbingly, feeding hostile networks. With Pakistan’s ISI stepping up efforts to rebuild terror infrastructure in Bangladesh, intelligence agencies fear that some illegal immigrants are being funnelled into sleeper modules operating in Bihar, West Bengal and the Northeast.

Since Operation Sindoor, the ISI has reportedly recalibrated its tactics, turning to the open Indo-Nepal border as the Line of Control and International Border have become increasingly impenetrable due to robust Indian military deployment. The Nepal corridor, officials say, is now being actively exploited to push in operatives and disrupt India’s internal security.

Following Hasina’s removal, the growing influence of the ISI and Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh has further complicated the security landscape. With vigilance tightened along the Bangladesh border, traffickers have little choice but to reroute through Nepal, officials said.

Intelligence agencies warn that the coming months will be particularly challenging. With West Bengal heading into elections later this year and Bangladesh’s own polls scheduled for 12 February, agencies anticipate heightened violence and unrest — conditions ripe for illegal infiltration networks to thrive.

“The push will increase,” an Intelligence Bureau official cautioned. “The next few months will test our security apparatus on multiple fronts.”

As political uncertainty deepens across the region, India’s border forces brace for a volatile period — one where geography, geopolitics and shadow networks converge along the quiet but vulnerable Nepal frontier.

With IANS inputs