Stakeholders harden position on Iran, suspense alive ahead of Islamabad talks

Despite reports by the Wall Street Journal and circulating photographs and videos purportedly showing the arrival of the Iranian delegation in Islamabad to discuss the fragile West Asia ceasefire, there was no official confirmation from either Pakistan or Iran until Friday evening.

While some videos appeared to show the Iranian president being received by Pakistan’s prime minister and Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, the two principal negotiators — Seyed Abbas Araghchi and G.B. Ghalibaf — were not seen. Iranian media outlets in fact claimed the delegation had not even departed Tehran for Islamabad, a flight of roughly three hours.

The US delegation, however, was reported to be airborne and expected to arrive early on Saturday, 11 April.

Iran’s visit to Islamabad was reportedly postponed several times on Friday, according to Press TV, amid Tehran’s insistence that Israel halt its bombing of Beirut and ground operations in Lebanon. Iranian officials warned that continued Israeli attacks could derail the talks altogether.

By Friday evening, Iranian sources suggested that pressure from Tehran had led US President Donald Trump to urge Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale down military operations in Lebanon. Intense diplomatic engagement reportedly resulted in direct talks between Netanyahu and the Lebanese president, with both sides agreeing to send delegations to Washington DC next week.

Iranian sources indicated that continuation of the Islamabad talks remained contingent on Israel refraining from further strikes on Beirut and the Dahieh suburb. Any violation, they signalled, could lead to the negotiations being terminated.

Iranian spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the talks were still under consideration. “The government of Pakistan has invited both parties to travel to Islamabad and hold the talks, which is under review and being planned, but without a doubt the holding of any talks is conditional upon obtaining assurance of the US' fulfilment of its obligations regarding a ceasefire on all fronts,” he said.

Asked about Iran’s delegation, Baghaei added, “If the travel plan is finalised, the line-up of the delegation to be sent will also be announced.”

The US has indicated that negotiations would revolve around the 15-point framework it had proposed earlier, while Iran maintains that discussions should be based on the 10-point proposal that Washington had previously accepted as the starting point.

Iran is also seeking firm guarantees that any ceasefire would prevent adversaries from regrouping and launching fresh strikes.

The Strait of Hormuz remains another major sticking point. Iran has signalled that it may seek to impose transit tolls jointly with Oman, while the US, NATO, the UAE and India have insisted that maritime passage remain unrestricted.

NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Friday indicated that a coalition of around 22 countries — largely NATO members and allies — is coordinating to ensure free navigation through the strategic waterway.

Iranian analysts interpret such moves as an attempt to maintain military pressure under the cover of ceasefire diplomacy. The UAE has also publicly stated that unhindered maritime transit through the Strait is a right that must be guaranteed.

Lebanon remains another unresolved flashpoint. Netanyahu’s office reiterated that the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon”, while US vice-president J.D. Vance described Lebanon’s inclusion in the truce framework as a “legitimate misunderstanding”.

Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Zamir described Lebanon as Israel’s “main battlefield”, saying, “The IDF is in a state of war. We are not in a ceasefire.”

A widely shared social media post by the Iranian foreign minister stating that “the US must choose: ceasefire or continued war via Israel” underscored Tehran’s negotiating position.

Meanwhile, conflicting media reports added to the uncertainty. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had arrived in Islamabad. Al Jadeed News, citing Pakistani media, identified the aircraft as an Iranian Air Force RJ85 departing Tehran.

However, Iranian outlets including Fars News, Tasnim and Mehr described the reports of the delegation’s arrival as “completely false”. Press TV quoted a “well-informed source” as saying neither Araghchi nor Ghalibaf had left the country.

Some analysts believe the confusion itself may be strategic. “Every party is negotiating while denying it is negotiating — and every denial is itself a negotiating position,” one analyst observed.