India's population to stabilise by 2080 owing to dip in fertility rate: Study

India’s population is projected to level off around the year 2080 at roughly 1.8–1.9 billion, driven largely by a sustained fall in fertility rates that have dropped below replacement level, an official has said.

According to the Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP), the country is in the midst of a significant demographic shift, marked by a steep decline in birth rates over the last twenty years. “In 2000, our TFR was 3.5 and today it stands at 1.9. This is a drastic decline,” IASP general-secretary Anil Chandran told PTI.

Chandran said population growth is expected to crest at between 1.8 and 1.9 billion by about 2080, after which it will begin to settle. “All estimates show that India’s maximum population will remain below two billion,” he added.

He attributed the sharp drop in fertility to rising levels of development and education, stressing that women’s expanding access to schooling has had a decisive impact on choices around marriage, timing of childbirth and family size.

Improved availability of contraceptives and a broader range of birth-control methods have also helped accelerate the fall in fertility, he said. “Couples today are better informed and exercise greater control over when and how many children to have,” Chandran noted.

He added that delayed marriages and widening economic prospects — especially for women pursuing higher education and careers — have further reshaped reproductive patterns.

“Development is inversely proportional to birth rates. Illiterate groups still have fertility levels above three, but among the educated, TFR ranges between 1.5 and 1.8,” he said.

Using Kerala as an example, Chandran pointed out that the state achieved replacement-level fertility (2.1) as early as 1987–1989 and now records a TFR of around 1.5.

West Bengal, too, has experienced a rapid downturn in fertility. The Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023 places its TFR at 1.3 — a marked drop from 1.7 in 2013, amounting to a fall of nearly 18 per cent. The state is now among those with the lowest fertility rates nationally, comparable to Tamil Nadu and just above Delhi, while registering the lowest urban TFR and the second-lowest rural TFR in India, he said.

At the same time, Chandran observed that longevity continues to improve as healthcare expands and quality of life rises. “More people are living beyond 60, and this brings new challenges of elder care, especially as younger people migrate for work,” he said, adding that options such as day-care services for senior citizens are gaining greater attention.

Founded in 1971, IASP brings together around 1,100 demographers and population specialists, and works closely with organisations such as UNFPA, the Population Council and the Population Foundation of India to study and discuss population trends.

With PTI inputs