The charade of ‘recognition’ for Palestine

After years of silence, Western capitals are once again speaking of Palestine. The United Kingdom, France, Belgium and several other European countries besides Canada and Australia have decided to formally recognise the State of Palestine. The timing is not accidental. Public outrage in their countries is becoming impossible to ignore, and these governments are being forced to weigh the political costs of their silence and complicity.

Israel’s war on Gaza, now on for nearly two years, has claimed an estimated 680,000 Palestinian lives — and more are dying every day. The televised slaughter of men, women and children defies description, the world’s apathy beggars belief and Israel’s impunity makes a mockery of the so-called rules-based international order.

Famine stalks Gaza; the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has called Israel’s occupation unlawful; the International Criminal Court (ICC) has arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; the UN Commission has found Israel guilty of committing genocide in the Gaza Strip. And yet the carnage continues unabated.

This belated ‘recognition’ is worth little. History bears witness that such symbolic gestures do not translate into real sovereignty. Since Israel’s 1967 occupation, Palestinians have lived under military rule and fought for statehood through both resistance and diplomacy.

The ‘recognition’ is cheap. It requires no sacrifice of economic interests, no confrontation with Washington and no pause in Europe’s longstanding support for Israel’s occupation and war.

Unless it is backed by concrete action (read: embargo/ boycott) on trade, weapons transfers, corporate responsibility and a diplomatic blacklisting of Israel, the ‘recognition’ will remain a hollow gesture, and very likely fail to contain even the domestic anger that has prodded these governments to make visible gestures.

Even the US calls the recognition of the State of Palestine performative, which it is, though America’s denunciation is also a performance — for Israel’s benefit. The US has warned the recognisers-come-lately of consequences if they take measures against Israel. Israeli officials speak openly of retaliation against France. Some ministers are urging annexation of parts of the West Bank, which is on the Israeli radar anyway.

Saudi Arabia has warned that annexation would have major implications. The UAE too, which is a signatory to the Abraham Accords with Israel, calls annexation a red line. But Arab states like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are also staging their own pushback theatre after Israel attacked Doha to target Hamas negotiators. On 8 September, Qatar, which houses the largest US airbase in West Asia, became the seventh Arab state that Israel has attacked since 7 October 2023.

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The US has never allowed Europe to play a decisive role in Israel’s security or its diplomatic cover. Washington is Israel’s military shield, financial lifeline and diplomatic umbrella. It is the US that sponsors Israel’s impunity. In comparison, Europe is a small player, a loyalist that cushions Israel in international forums while profiting from its markets and innovation. Europe’s recognition of Palestine does not alter this equation.

However, the EU–Israel trade numbers reveal another facet of this relationship. In 2024, total trade in goods between the EU and Israel was 42.6 billion euros, up about 1 billion euros over the previous year despite the conflict. The EU has a significant trade surplus with Israel and accounted for 32 per cent of Israel’s goods trade in 2024; Israel represents less than 1 per cent of the EU’s external trade.

In 2024, Israel’s ministry of defence reported $14.7 billion in arms exports, a 13 per cent increase from the previous year. More than half of those defence deals were with European countries. This is the material foundation of a relationship that the ‘recognition’ of Palestine leaves untouched.

Despite decades of settlement expansion by Israel, Europe has maintained preferential ties. A free trade agreement has been in place since 1995. Agricultural trade expanded in 2010. A mutual recognition regime for pharmaceuticals came in 2013. An open skies aviation deal was struck in 2018. The much-hyped policy of differentiation that excludes settlement goods from preferential arrangements is a gesture at best, not a leverage tool. It has not deterred or slowed down the colonisation.

Europe has also extended financial and institutional benefits through the neighbourhood policy and research frameworks. Israel remains a privileged partner in the EU’s Southern Neighbourhood strategy (a strategic framework for engaging with countries in the Southern Mediterranean region) even as it wages this genocidal war.

Military and corporate interests run deeper. Germany alone supplies a big chunk of Israel’s weapons, and increased its exports to Israel even as Gaza was being reduced to rubble. While Spain has cancelled all arms deals with Israel this month, there is no EU-wide weapons ban.

In July 2024, the ICJ made plain that states must not aid or assist the illegal situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT). By continuing to trade weapons and security technology, the EU states are liable for complicity in war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The contradiction is glaring. On the one hand, European leaders stand in the UN General Assembly announcing their ‘recognition’ of the State of Palestine and attend summits on a ‘two-state solution’. On the other, their governments sell weapons, protect billion-euro agreements, and shield Israel from meaningful sanctions.

The European Commission has floated a plan to suspend parts of the EU–Israel Association Agreement and to impose tariffs on a slice of imports. But key member states are prepared to block it.

Even if passed, the estimated cost to Israel of these sanctions would be marginal in a trade relationship worth tens of billions. That’s not pressure, it’s political stagecraft.

There’s another reason for Europe’s timidity vis-à-vis Israel. Mainstream politics across the continent is spooked by the far right. Parties that thrive on Islamophobia and anti-migrant rage have already attacked ‘recognition’. Leaders calculate every move against the risk of a populist backlash. This climate explains why recognition took so long and why governments still baulk at measures that might change Israeli behaviour.

Israel understands these divisions and exploits them. For years, it has cultivated ties with Hungary, the Czech Republic, Austria and Germany to block consensus. Israeli diplomacy focuses on bilateral deals, knowing that one veto in Brussels can paralyse collective action.

This paralysis corrodes Europe’s credibility. The same governments that condemn Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory continue to trade with Israel as it tightens control over Palestinian land. The same leaders who call for accountability in one war hesitate to suspend cooperation with a government wanted by the International Criminal Court.

Palestinians do not need more lip-service to a ‘two-state solution’. They need the international community to stop funding, arming and legitimising the state that is destroying them.

Unless Europe matches recognition with real pressure on trade, weapons, corporate ties and diplomatic cover, its gestures will remain hollow. The symbolism of ‘recognition’ will not stop the annexation. It will not end the bombing, nor feed the hungry nor free the hostages.

Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden. More of his writing may be read here