Trump tariffs: Where India can expect to feel the burn, ranked

According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), at least 10 Indian industrial sectors are at 'high' to 'very high' risk from the additional 50 per cent tariffs imposed by US president Donald Trump, effective from today, 28 August, Thursday.

Tabulated below — ranked in order of tariffs, rather than overall size of impact — the sectors worst-affected end up with tariffs of 60 per cent or as high as almost 64 per cent in the case of knitted apparel, followed by woven apparel and shrimp (both at around 60 per cent), and then made-up textiles at 59 per cent, organic chemicals at 54 per cent.

Each of these top five affected industries — expected to experience a 'very high' impact per the GTRI analysis — accounts for $2-3 billion worth of exports to the US in FY 2025.

The next five sectors / product categories are carpets (52.9 per cent), furniture, bedding and mattresses (52.3 per cent), diamonds, gold and related products (52.1 per cent), steel, aluminium and copper (51.7 per cent) and machinery and mechanical appliances (51.3 per cent).

Some of these sectors, while taxed with slightly lower tariff rates, are actually liable to show a larger impact due to their size alone, however.

Diamonds, gold and jewellery, for instance, accounts for a $10 billion worth of exports in FY 2025, the highest on the table — barring smartphones (which are at zero tariff currently, though Trump's remarks directed at Apple's Tim Cook suggest he would definitely like to change that as well).

And while furniture and bedding as well as carpets contribute just over $1 billion each, machinery and appliances ($6.7 billion in FY 2025) and steel, aluminium and copper ($4.7 billion) can hardly be sneezed at.

Overall, the GDP is likely to be dragged down by as much 1-2 per cent, per various estimates.

In a post on X in the evening of 27 August (Wednesday), the Indian National Congress had reiterated its concerns — tabulated by party president and Rajya Sabha LoP (leader of the Opposition) Mallikarjun Kharge earlier in the day too — that "millions of livelihoods" were at stake across several key industries.

The post, titled 'India pays for Modi's friendship!', said India faces losses of Rs 2.17 lakh crore across several sectors.

"According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), almost 1 [per cent] of our GDP could be impacted, while China stands to benefit," the post claimed, flagging that "This is going to wipe out lakhs of jobs in several sectors, including MSMEs, and trigger a severe unemployment crisis."

The sectors highlighted in the post include:

• Textiles: 5,00,000 jobs at stake

• Gems and jewellery: 1.5–2 lakh jobs at risk, with 1,00,000 diamond workers in Saurashtra already jobless — even though PTI cited industrialists in Gujarat claiming 'diamonds are forever' and the impact should be limited and short-term

• Shrimp farming: 3 million livelihoods endangered

The Congress has also repeatedly pointed out that this may be the last straw in a context where the manufacturing industry is already struggling with a poor growth record under the Narendra Modi dispensation.

Meanwhile, Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro has suggested India could get a concession of as much as 25 per cent less tariffs if it would only stop buying Russian oil.

The point, however, may be moot with Russia's exports paused till September on account of Ukraine's bombardment of its refineries and pipeline. But more importantly, does that make overall economic sense for India — or political?

With PTI inputs