India’s share in global iPhone assembly projected to reach 28% in 2026

India is expected to assemble nearly 28 per cent of global iPhone shipments in 2026 as Apple continues to reduce its dependence on China and diversify its manufacturing operations, according to industry estimates.

The projected rise from 23 per cent in 2025 underlines India’s growing strategic importance in Apple’s evolving global supply chain as the technology giant seeks to mitigate geopolitical risks, tariff pressures and supply disruptions linked to over-reliance on China.

Research firm Smart Analytics Global (SAG) estimates that China’s share in global iPhone production declined to 74 per cent in 2025 from 83 per cent the previous year, while India’s contribution rose sharply from 14 per cent to 23 per cent over the same period.

Separately, Counterpoint Research estimates India’s share could increase further to around 26 per cent in 2026, reflecting broader industry expectations that Apple’s manufacturing expansion in the country will continue to accelerate.

Abhilash Kumar, analyst at Smart Analytics Global, told moneycontrol that Apple’s continued diversification beyond China, along with capacity expansion by manufacturers such as Tata Electronics, was driving India’s rapid rise in global iPhone assembly.

Counterpoint Research’s Tarun Pathak said Apple’s manufacturing partners had significantly expanded assembly lines and production capabilities in India while also increasing the range of iPhone models being produced locally.

He added that stronger exports to key markets, including the United States and Europe, had reinforced India’s position as a major manufacturing and export hub for Apple products.

Apple has steadily increased local production through partners such as Foxconn and Tata Electronics. Tata Group’s acquisition of Wistron and Pegatron’s India operations marked a major step in Apple’s localisation strategy in the country.

India now assembles a growing share of Apple’s latest iPhone models and has become an increasingly important export base for the company’s global operations.

Over the past five years, Apple manufactured iPhones worth nearly $70 billion under India’s production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme, with exports accounting for approximately $51 billion, or nearly 73 per cent of total production.

Industry data also showed that iPhones emerged as India’s single largest exported commodity in the previous financial year.

India’s role in Apple’s supply chain is also expanding beyond smartphone assembly. Apple has exported more than one million AirPods units from Foxconn’s India facility to international markets and is reportedly increasing production volumes further.

In a significant shift, Indian suppliers are now exporting components and sub-assemblies such as printed circuit board assemblies and mechanical parts to China, reversing traditional supply chain patterns that historically flowed in the opposite direction.

According to commerce ministry data, exports of such components and sub-assemblies reached a record $2.5 billion in FY26.

The first 11 months of FY26 also saw iPhones account for more than 75 per cent of India’s smartphone exports, contributing nearly Rs 2 trillion out of total smartphone exports worth around Rs 2.6 trillion.

At the same time, Apple and its suppliers are increasingly pushing for localisation of components within India, signalling a broader transition from simple assembly operations towards a more integrated electronics manufacturing ecosystem.

However, analysts cautioned that India is unlikely to replace China entirely in Apple’s supply chain in the near future.

China continues to retain major advantages, including a highly developed supplier ecosystem, mature manufacturing infrastructure, skilled labour availability and extensive experience in handling large-scale electronics production.

Many of Apple’s most critical suppliers and component manufacturers also remain deeply rooted in China, allowing the country to maintain unmatched scale and operational flexibility.

Analysts said Apple’s long-term strategy appears focused not on replacing China altogether, but on building a more balanced and resilient global manufacturing network with India playing an increasingly significant role.