Is the US preparing for a final strike before bowing out of West Asia?

CNN on Wednesday, 19 August did not beat around the bush. ‘US President Donald Trump is struggling to extract the United States from a war that he started almost six months ago — alternating between claims that Tehran is “begging” for a deal, and threats to renew military attacks,’ it said in a report. American newspapers on the same day published equally stark reports about the situation in West Asia.

The Wall Street Journal showcased the growing frustration in Gulf nations as their ships trying to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz keep getting hit by Iran while the US holds fire. The New York Times reported the same day that both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have engaged with Japan and South Korea to substantially increase the capacity to store Gulf oil. While both Gulf countries hold eight million barrels each in Japanese storage tanks in Japan, they are asking for a ten-fold increase to cope with future supply shocks.

Washington Post reported that an evaluation was on in the Pentagon over the implications of the US pulling out of the region, along with the possibility of pulling out troops from US military bases in the region. There is an emerging consensus, the report claimed, that the damaged US military bases in the region would not be built back on the same scale as before. The thinking is influenced both by the US economy taking a hit and multiple media reports that suggest that US troops in the region are suffering from sickness after spending months at sea and on alert, resulting in low morale.

Renewed hostility between the US and Iran, however, looks increasingly likely as the June ceasefire deal has collapsed, while Iran threatens to go ‘fully offensive’, and President Trump has ruled out extending the truce. Markets are reacting with volatility: oil prices are swinging between $83 and 91 per barrel, bond yields are spiking, and equities are retreating. US inflation is currently at 3.36 per cent (headline CPI), with July data showing 3.4 per cent year-on-year, leaving the Federal Reserve worried.

The Pakistan-brokered MoU in June collapsed over disputes about control of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has threatened to take over control of the strait, ruled out extending the ceasefire and has threatened to bomb the ‘shit out’ of Oman if it cooperates with Iran on the management of the strait. Iran, in turn, has officially warned that it would adopt a ‘fully offensive’ posture if diplomacy fails, including breaking the US naval blockade.

Trump’s public statements on Iran in August have been erratic as before, swinging sharply between conciliatory ‘wait-and-watch’ rhetoric and aggressive threats and calls for Iran to surrender. The bewildering switch between restraint, pressure tactics and threats of sudden escalation has kept analysts on tenterhooks.

On 9-10 August, the US president stepped back from the threat of more military action and advised patience and restraint. It is like a game of chess, he said. A week later, Trump flipped and called on Iran to ‘surrender’. On 17 August, he claimed the US was engaged in direct, back-channel negotiations with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The very next day, however, he declared, “There are no talks or conversations going on…the Hormuz Strait is open and operating”. Iran reacted by declaring, “Hormuz is ours; accept defeat”.

The fact is that as of mid-August, around 360 vessels remain stranded inside the Persian Gulf owing to the Hormuz closure, including dozens of tankers and container carriers. This is slightly higher than July, when daily transits had dropped to just 3–11 vessels, leaving hundreds stuck.

In the past one month, at least 5–7 ships have been hit in Hormuz, with casualties reported, and traffic was reportedly down by 94 per cent over last year. Meanwhile, the Bab-el-Mandeb strait is technically open but under heavy Houthi attack, with traffic down more than 50 per cent and naval escorts now required.

Multiple attacks on ships were reported between 6 and 14 July, when the US claimed to have hit 70 targets in Iran, which retaliated by attacking US bases and strategic assets in the Gulf countries. Between 13 and 15 August, at least two vessels were attacked and another was hit the following day. On 18-19 August, three more ships were struck, killing two seafarers. Since February, there have been 62 confirmed attacks on ships and tankers and 17 confirmed fatalities.

While the US president may have lost his appetite for war, and has shifted his goal from neutralising the Iranian nuclear stockpile to keeping Hormuz open, there is no let-up in the military build-up in the region. Various media reports suggest that three US naval carrier strike forces (USS Abraham Lincoln, USS Gerald R. Ford and USS George Washington) are operating in the Arabian Sea for the first time in several decades. As many as 237 combat fighter jets and 209 aerial refuelling aircraft are positioned from bases in Europe to bases in the Gulf, reports said this week.

While few can make sense of what the US plans are and even fewer can predict what might happen, West Asia expert Trita Parsi’s grim post on X this week suggests we have not yet seen the end of the US-Iran war.

‘I am increasingly convinced that there will be a third round in the US-Israel-Iran war. It is not inevitable, but the signals I am picking up from the two sides, as well as from key GCC states, leaves me quite pessimistic. Tehran believes it has the military edge and is openly discussing going on the offensive instead of merely responding to American attacks. By that, Iran will not only have wrested control of the scope and geography of the war from the US, but also its timing. In the US, on the other hand, an increasingly frustrated Trump not only promises to annex a Strait he can’t open, but also threatens to bomb Oman…’

What is clear is that time is running out for the US president. Back in April, a record 55 per cent of Americans reported that their finances were getting worse. In July, 95 per cent of Americans believed there was an affordability crisis, while in August, two-thirds of Americans now say they can no longer afford groceries.