Trump in 'revdi' mode, promises $5,000 to every adult if Republicans win midterms

US President Donald Trump has promised a $5,000 payout to every adult American if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress in November’s midterm elections — a proposal that could cost the government around $1.3 trillion.

Trump made the pledge at the Republican Party’s first convention held midway through a US presidential term, drawing loud applause from supporters in Dallas, Texas.

“If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000,” Trump said.

He provided no details on how the payments would be funded or distributed, saying only that recipients would have to spend the money in the United States.

“We don't want you going to Canada to spend the money,” Trump said. “We don't want you going to China, to Germany. You got to spend the money in the United States of America.”

It was not immediately clear how such spending would be monitored.

Tariff revenue to fund payments?

Vice-President JD Vance suggested that the proposed payments could be funded through the revenue generated by Trump’s sweeping tariff programme.

“What the president is talking about is fundamentally a dividend for American workers,” Vance told Fox News.

“We're taking in an extraordinary amount of revenue because the president of the United States is actually standing up to both foreign companies but also foreign countries who've been taking advantage of America's workers,” he said.

Trump has previously floated the idea of $2,000 cheques funded by tariff revenues.

The latest proposal, however, would be substantially more expensive. With nearly 270 million adults in the US, a $5,000 payment to each would amount to roughly $1.3 trillion.

The pledge has prompted questions over whether tariff revenue would be sufficient to fund it, as well as how Congress would authorise the spending.

Under the US system, Congress controls federal spending. Trump did not say whether he would seek congressional approval for what he called “Trump Dividends”.

Questions over legality

The proposal has also raised questions over whether linking a financial benefit to an election outcome could violate federal election laws.

Federal laws prohibit payments intended to influence voting. However, legal experts cited by US media offered differing views on whether Trump's announcement would fall foul of those restrictions.

John Day, a lawyer in New Mexico, said the proposal could be legal because it amounted to a campaign promise to all adult US citizens rather than a direct payment to individuals in exchange for voting in a particular way.

An election law expert cited by The New York Times similarly said the promise could be protected by the First Amendment’s free-speech provisions.

Democrats, meanwhile, dismissed the proposal as an “empty promise”.

Economic and political backdrop

Trump’s announcement comes as the US economy faces pressure from elevated oil prices and the wider economic fallout from the war involving the US and Israel and Iran.

Iranian retaliation has included attacks on US bases and allies in the Gulf, while the conflict has largely disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

The disruption has contributed to volatility in global oil prices and increased political pressure on Trump to end the conflict.

Trump said on Wednesday that the war would not end until after the November midterms and that oil prices would not fall until then.

At the Republican convention, he argued that short-term economic pain was necessary to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.

The midterm elections are scheduled for 3 November and will determine whether Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and Senate.

The pledge comes less than two months before the vote, with one former Republican strategist describing it as an extraordinary promise whose funding remained unclear.

The historical tendency for the president’s party to lose congressional seats during midterm elections adds further political significance to Trump’s proposal.