Will Trump finally leash Netanyahu in Gaza this time? Summit ahead

On the eve of a pivotal White House meeting with US president Donald Trump, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on 28 September, Sunday, that Israel was engaged with the Trump administration on a new ceasefire initiative for Gaza, though "details are still being sorted out".

“We’re working on it,” Netanyahu said on Fox News, claiming that negotiations are ongoing. After dismissing talk of a ceasefire just a day ago, he then expressed hopes for a breakthrough.

Meanwhile, Gaza’s death toll in this war in Israel’s 'self-defence' against Hamas has surpassed 66,000, according to the Gaza health ministry.

The proposed 21-point Trump plan that has been the subject of much speculation reportedly includes an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages within 48 hours and — importantly, echoing a longstanding Hamas demand — a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, albeit in phases.

Arab sources familiar with the talks indicate the framework also envisions an international security force to stabilise Gaza post-war, with a technocratic Palestinian committee overseeing civilian affairs — later transitioning to a reformed Palestinian Authority.

The plan, which finally excludes the expulsion (or 'voluntary migration') of Palestinians, however also demands that Hamas relinquish control of Gaza and turn in all weapons. In exchange, hundreds of Palestinian prisoners would reportedly be released by Israel, and hostilities would halt.

However, are these reports reliable?

Hamas officials stated on Sunday that, contrary to widespread media reports, the group has not received the new proposal but remains prepared to “study any proposals positively and responsibly”. They have already several times agreed to terms proposed in negotiations by third parties, most recently being the Qatar-hosted talks where Israel attacked and killed key leaders after seemingly luring them to the table under guise of a negotiation.

Hamas have long insisted that any agreement must ensure an end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal — and that has so far been the sticking point, with Netanyahu and his far-right allies adamant about retaining control of Gaza, with POTUS Donald Trump backing them up so far.

Negotiations had, understandably, stalled after Israel’s targeting of the Hamas leadership in Doha earlier this month — but that strike also drew criticism from long-time ally US, in addition to raising tensions among mediators and turning the global tide against Israel more sharply.

Internationally, Israel is facing increasing isolation and pressure for an immediate ceasefire. In the past month, 10 Western-aligned countries — including the UK, France, Canada and Australia — have recognised Palestinian statehood, and the European Union is exploring sanctions against Israel.

But this is another contentious area, with critics in these very Western countries as well as observers elsewhere arguing such gestures are merely performative — and in truth, ineffective and thus irresponsible, at this late stage where a famine has been declared and genocide repeatedly alleged.

Humanitarian agencies and global rights experts warn of a spiralling crisis, with “90 per cent of Gaza's population displaced amid catastrophic famine.” The majority of the dead, according to the Gaza health ministry, are women and children — a figure treated as credible by the UN and independent monitors... even as independent experts have

Domestically, Netanyahu’s coalition is under strain. The earlier departure of ultra-Orthodox partners over the conscription laws means the Israeli PM’s majority in the 120-member Knesset is under threat. Within the alliance that is left, while some allies want Israel to take an US-led deal, the far-right continue adamant on the entire eradication of Hamas (and preferably the removal of all Palestinians from the occupied territories, not only Gaza but the West Bank and Jerusalem as well).

Complicating matters, Netanyahu is facing a high-profile corruption trial, raising questions among both critics and coalition partners around his motives to keep the war in Gaza going.

Internationally, Netanyahu’s foremost ally Trump and the US have also of late demonstrated growing impatience, especially after the Israeli attacks jeopardised negotiations in Qatar — and possibly a chance at the Nobel peace Prize the POTUS is angling for.

Still, President Trump recently declared, “We have a real chance for GREATNESS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. ALL ARE ON BOARD FOR SOMETHING SPECIAL, FIRST TIME EVER. WE WILL GET IT DONE!!!” So, anticipation builds for the Washington summit.

So, experts suggest Netanyahu may have to choose between adhering to the US pressure for a ceasefire and placating hardline elements in his government who demand that ‘the war of Hamas’ continue.

Trump’s plan does not entail the expulsion of Palestinians this time, unlike earlier versions — including a particularly appalling AI-generated vision of a Gaza ‘Riviera] real-estate development from the POTUS — which addresses a key concern from international critics. The plan does, however, require the full disarmament of Hamas and a dramatic overhaul of Gaza’s administration.

Hamas, for its part, links disarmament to the creation of an independent Palestinian state — positions that remain unresolved as both sides prepare for the crucial exercise in diplomacy.

Meanwhile, Israeli operations in Gaza remain relentless and continue to intensify in the Strip’s last standing city, with strikes reported overnight. Additionally, there has been further violence in the West Bank as well, underscoring the urgent need for an enforceable ceasefire.

The meeting between Netanyahu and Trump is therefore widely being seen as 'one of the most critical' in Palestine’s recent history, with the outcome potentially determining the direction of the conflict and wider efforts for peace in the region.

Even India, which has departed from its historical position on Palestine in the last decade to seek closer ties with Israel and has a contentious relationship with the POTUS right now (to put it mildly), has seemed to back the ceasefire proposal in the recent UNGA summit, per external affairs minister S. Jaishankar's speech.