Tarn Taran a dress rehearsal for the final showdown?

The assembly by-election in Punjab’s Tarn Taran constituency, scheduled for 11 November, is turning out to be a high-stakes battle. With the state assembly elections slated for February 2027, the current contest is being viewed as a rehearsal for the final showdown, commanding the full attention of all major parties in the run up to the campaign.

The assembly seat fell vacant following the death of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) MLA Kashmir Singh Sohal. Politically and socially, the constituency is a microcosm of Punjab’s many complexities. Bordering Pakistan, Tarn Taran has faced unique tensions—drug trafficking, smuggling and the scars of past militancy. Most of the district is rural and still recovering from the devastation caused by the recent floods. being in alliance with the BJP.

Five years later, in 2022, he lost to AAP’s Kashmir Singh Sohal, signalling a clear swing in voter sentiment. Are Punjab farmers alone to be blamed for Delhi’s air pollution? Meanwhile, farmers continue to face their own seasonal crisis: stubble burning. Farmers’ organisations have renewed protests over FIRs and fines imposed on farmers accused of burning stubble.

The Samyukt Kisan Morcha has submitted memorandums to district authorities, demanding immediate withdrawal of these cases and penalties— marking what it calls the first phase of a larger struggle. So far, more than 3,000 cases of stubble burning have been registered across the state.

Satellite images capturing the flames

The farmers argue that the real issue is economic, not environmental defiance. “If we don’t sow wheat within the first 10 to 12 days of November, the yield drops,” Mansa-based farmer leader Jasbir Singh told National Herald. He says newer uses for crop residue are emerging, adding that “in three to four years, burning may no longer be necessary; but right now, farmers simply have no alternative.”

Over time, the farmers too have hardened their stance. “Why does stubble burning in Punjab cause pollution only in Delhi and not in the regions lying in between?” they ask. Their scepticism is not entirely More than 3,000 cases of stubble burning have been registered across Punjab baseless. Charanpal Singh, a lawyer handling such cases, notes that data submitted to the Supreme Court in November 2019 attributed barely five per cent of Delhi’s pollution to stubble burning.

Yet, each winter it continues to dominate public discourse. Analysts often describe Tarn Taran as a panthic stronghold shaped by Akali politics where religious groups hold deep sway. Yet, voting patterns have fluctuated sharply. In 2017, Dharamvir Agnihotri of the Congress defeated the Shiromani Akali Dal nominee despite the Akalis being in alliance with the BJP. Five years later, in 2022, he lost to AAP’s Kashmir Singh Sohal, signalling a clear swing in voter sentiment.

The renewed talk of panthik influence stems largely from the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Tarn Taran assembly segment falls under the Khadoor Sahib Lok Sabha constituency. Amritpal Singh—the leader of Waris Punjab De who was detained in Dibrugarh jail in Assam under the National Security Act (NSA)—won as an independent candidate.

His victory was interpreted as a protest vote, signalling alienation and discontent within the electorate. Punjab Congress president and MP Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, however, dismisses the ‘Amritpal factor’ in the by-election. “There was a vacuum at that time which Amritpal filled. That situation no longer exists,” he says.

Waris Punjab De is backing Mandeep Singh Sunny, who is contesting as an independent. In an added political twist, a breakaway faction of the Shiromani Akali Dal has also extended support to Sunny even as the SAD, led by Sukhbir Singh Badal, has officially nominated Sukhwinder Kaur Randhawa, a retired principal, whose late husband, Dharmi Fauji was once a feared gangster.

It is in this charged atmosphere that the panthic vote appears headed for fragmentation. The AAP candidate, a three time former Akali Dal MLA, Harmeet Singh Sandhu, is likely to further split the Akali Dal’s traditional votes. Though AAP had won this seat in the 2022 assembly elections, the party is a much-weakened force now. A series of controversies have dented its claim to a ‘clean’ image.

So much so that it has largely avoided the themes that once formed the core of its appeal—governance reform, transparency and welfare. The recent corruption case against DIG Harcharan Singh Bhullar and the recovery of large sums of cash from his home have further eroded the party’s credibility.

Meanwhile, the controversy over the alleged ‘sheesh mahal’ in Chandigarh linked to party chief Arvind Kejriwal has forced AAP on the defensive. Unfulfilled promises, particularly the Rs 1,000 monthly allowance for women, have added to the disappointment. The government’s handling of the recent floods, marred by poor coordination and inadequate relief measures, has also left many disillusioned. Its woes don’t end there.

A breakaway faction claiming to be the ‘real’ AAP has fielded the nephew of late AAP MLA Kashmir Singh Sohal, turning this into a multi-cornered contest.

Senior Congress leader and Leader of the Opposition in the state Partap Singh Bajwa sums up the situation: “With the Akali Dal split into three factions and the Aam Aadmi Party seemingly divided in two, the Congress remains the only party contesting as a united front.”

However, the Congress too faces its own challenges. Persistent efforts to inject communal polarisation into the region’s politics have complicated prospects for parties espousing secular and inclusive agendas.

Political analysts point out that by-elections in Punjab tend to favour the party in power. Whether Tarn Taran will follow this pattern or defy it remains to be seen.

Are Punjab farmers alone to be blamed for Delhi’s air pollution?

Meanwhile, farmers continue to face their own seasonal crisis: stubble burning. Farmers’ organisations have renewed protests over FIRs and fines imposed on farmers accused of burning stubble. The Samyukt Kisan Morcha has submitted memorandums to district authorities, demanding immediate withdrawal of these cases and penalties— marking what it calls the first phase of a larger struggle.

So far, more than 3,000 cases of stubble burning have been registered across the state. Satellite images capturing the flames sweeping through Punjab’s fields are being routinely shared on television channels, casting the farmers as the villains responsible for Delhi-NCR’s air pollution.

Adding to the sensationalised coverage are claims that the farmers have found ways to ‘outsmart’ satellites. Reports suggest that the Aqua satellite and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) can detect fires only during the afternoon and late night—prompting the allegation that some farmers are burning stubble in the gaps between these observation windows.

The farmers argue that the real issue is economic, not environmental defiance. “If we don’t sow wheat within the first 10 to 12 days of November, the yield drops,” Mansa-based farmer leader Jasbir Singh told National Herald.

He says newer uses for crop residue are emerging, adding that “in three to four years, burning may no longer be necessary; but right now, farmers simply have no alternative.” Over time, the farmers too have hardened their stance. “Why does stubble burning in Punjab cause pollution only in Delhi and not in the regions lying in between?” they ask.

Their scepticism is not entirely baseless. Charanpal Singh, a lawyer handling such cases, notes that data submitted to the Supreme Court in November 2019 attributed barely five per cent of Delhi’s pollution to stubble burning. Yet, each winter it continues to dominate public discourse.

The real problem, perhaps, lies in the framing of the debate itself. Rarely does the conversation extend to the economic and environmental toll that stubble burning inflicts on Punjab itself—or to the structural constraints that trap its farmers in this cycle of blame and necessity.