Who after Ajit Pawar?

Who succeeds Ajit Pawar? That is the question dominating Maharashtra’s political chatter after the sudden death on Wednesday of the state’s deputy chief minister and Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar faction) president in an aircraft crash.

The tragedy occurred at a moment when Ajit Pawar had been quietly working to reconcile with his uncle Sharad Pawar’s NCP (Sharad Pawar faction). The reunification effort began with the decision to jointly contest Pune’s municipal elections, and similar coordination was underway for the district council and panchayat samiti elections scheduled for 5 February. Ajit Pawar was travelling to Baramati on Wednesday morning to campaign when his aircraft went down.

At 66, Ajit Pawar — popularly known as 'Dada' — was one of Maharashtra’s most formidable political personalities. His sudden death has triggered a wave of speculation about who might lead the NCP (Ajit Pawar) and whether the faction itself might splinter.

Inside his camp, there is no equivalent figure with his electoral reach or organisational muscle. Yet, the successor will need enough political heft to maintain influence within both the Union and Maharashtra governments, since Ajit’s faction is part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s NDA at the Centre and the Mahayuti alliance under chief minister Devendra Fadnavis in the state.

Names circulating within the family include his wife Sunetra Pawar, sons Parth and Jay Pawar, and among senior party colleagues, figures such as Praful Patel, Sunil Tatkare, Chhagan Bhujbal and Dhananjay Munde. Sunetra, a Rajya Sabha MP, has been active in grassroots work in Baramati, while Parth Pawar remains a controversial political figure — having lost a Lok Sabha contest from Maval and recently facing scrutiny over a land dispute. Jay Pawar is occupied more with business than politics. In any case, none of them carry Ajit Pawar’s charisma or vote-pulling capacity.

Among party veterans, Praful Patel is credited with having strategically engineered the 2023 split in the undivided NCP. Yet Patel, currently the national working president of the Ajit faction, lacks Ajit’s connect with ordinary voters. Analysts believe the Pawar family may even prefer an external consensus figure to retain power, rather than elevate a family member. The numbers matter: Ajit’s camp controls three MPs and 41 MLAs, while Sharad Pawar retains eight MPs and 10 MLAs.

Notably, despite the organisational split, the Pawar family remained publicly united on personal matters. Ajit and Sharad Pawar were often seen together at family events.

This has revived speculation: if the two factions reunify, could Sharad Pawar or his daughter, Baramati MP Supriya Sule, take charge of a unified party? Sule has political experience and has aligned with Ajit on several policy issues.

But there is a major hurdle. Any reunification would likely force the Ajit camp to exit the NDA at both the Centre and in the state. Sharad Pawar has repeatedly said that while he lives, the NCP will not join the Modi government or Mahayuti coalition. Such conditions could trigger defections within the Ajit faction, where many leaders prefer remaining with Modi. Those leaders had, in fact, attempted to pressure Sharad Pawar to join the NDA earlier.

Complicating matters further, Ajit Pawar himself was never entirely comfortable with hardline Hindutva politics. He refused to visit the RSS headquarters in Nagpur, fuelling speculation that he might eventually walk out of the Mahayuti.

Another immediate question concerns the finance portfolio. Ajit Pawar served as finance minister in the Fadnavis government, and the state budget session is due next month. With his faction in disarray, there is talk that Fadnavis might himself present the budget — something he has done before — as the state enters a period of political uncertainty.