Will PM Modi’s Kolkata rally flop?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to address a rally at Kolkata’s nearly 1,000-acre Brigade Parade Ground on Saturday, 14 March, but political observers and even some within his own BJP say the turnout may fall short of the party’s ambitious expectations.

The rally is meant to be the culmination of the BJP’s Paribartan Yatra in West Bengal, launched earlier this month ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections. However, several stops on the yatra route have drawn attention for visibly low attendance, with rival political leaders claiming the campaign has struggled to generate enthusiasm.

Trinamool Congress leaders in particular have repeatedly described the yatra as a “total flop show”. TMC state general-secretary Kunal Ghosh pointed to sparse gatherings, including a meeting in Kolkata's Garia area, where fewer than 40 people reportedly attended, and claimed several rallies were “empty”.

BJP leaders reject that assessment, insisting the campaign is steadily building momentum ahead of the prime minister’s rally. Party sources say the yatra has seen growing participation, particularly among younger supporters.

Despite those claims, some political analysts believe the BJP’s Bengal unit is now relying less on Modi’s personal appeal after the party’s disappointing performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in the state. During that campaign, the prime minister visited Bengal frequently, but the party still failed to meet expectations.

“Modi hasn’t gelled well with Bengali culture, language and traditions,” some analysts argue, suggesting that the BJP’s current campaign strategy is focused more on attacking chief minister Mamata Banerjee over alleged corruption and “misrule” rather than relying solely on the prime minister’s popularity.

Attempts to sharpen polarisation around issues such as infiltration and Rohingya migrants have also failed to gain the traction the party had hoped for. Meanwhile, internal differences have surfaced within the state BJP: while leader of opposition Suvendu Adhikari has pushed for a sharper Hindu-Muslim political narrative, other leaders such as state BJP chief Shamik Bhattacharya have taken a more cautious stance.

The recent Supreme Court verdict related to the National Register of Citizens — referred to by some insiders as a disguised SIR — has added another layer of complexity. Many Hindus have reportedly found themselves on the 'under adjudication' list, leading to legal challenges and hardship during hearings. Analysts say the issue has created unexpected resentment that could affect the BJP’s support base.

Broader geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty have also contributed to rising hostility toward the party, according to some observers, while anti-incumbency against the BJP at the national level is beginning to affect perceptions in the state.

Logistical challenges have further complicated preparations for the Brigade rally. Abhijit Tah, a senior BJP leader from Burdwan, said arranging transport has become difficult because buses are often blocked and private operators fear potential reprisals.

“More than buses, we are relying on the railway,” Tah said, adding that local party units have been instructed to bring at least 20 supporters each in order to reach the target of five lakh attendees.

Yet there are signs of reluctance among party workers. Prasanta Bapari of Ananda Nagar said many cadres remain wary after facing hostility from ruling party supporters following last year’s elections. “Many have decided not to go in our vehicles or under our banner,” he said. “Last year they faced problems after the elections. This time they will go on their own, if at all.”

State intelligence officials are also sceptical about the BJP’s crowd projections. A police officer of deputy commissioner rank confirmed that the party has informed authorities of plans for five lakh participants and about 65 raths — converted vehicles used during the campaign — but internal assessments suggest attendance could be significantly lower. “We are prepared for any number,” the officer said cautiously.

Funding issues have also emerged as a point of internal friction. A senior BJP leader alleged that funds sent from the Centre for organising transport, food, campaign materials and other arrangements for 5 lakh participants have not been fully utilised for that purpose.

“A major portion is either with some leaders or being kept for future use,” the leader claimed, echoing earlier complaints by former state BJP chief Dilip Ghosh, who had alleged after the 2024 elections that campaign funds were siphoned off.

Another challenge for the party has been shifting youth dynamics. In earlier elections, young defectors from Left organisations had bolstered BJP mobilisation efforts, but their presence at rallies has diminished. Migration of activists from other parties has also slowed considerably.

“Young people feel cheated because Modi’s promise of creating two crore jobs annually never materialised,” one political analyst said. State welfare schemes such as Yubasree have also helped the TMC retain youth support, weakening the BJP’s appeal among first-time voters.

Even optimistic projections within the party face scepticism. State vice-president Raju Banerjee has claimed that around 50,000 people could arrive from North Bengal alone in 10 special trains and buses. But party insiders point to the lukewarm response to the yatra in that region as a warning sign.

Some leaders remain hopeful. BJP MLA Anandamoy Barman said the prime minister’s presence could still draw large crowds to Brigade Parade Ground.

Yet with the Election Commission expected to announce Assembly election dates soon, the rally has taken on added significance. A turnout well below expectations could reinforce doubts about the BJP’s organisational strength in West Bengal and raise fresh questions about the party’s prospects in the upcoming polls.