A peace plan that is anything but

Even as the death toll in Gaza mounts daily and the Gaza health ministry keeps that grim ledger, even as we realise that the official statistics possibly count only a fraction of the lives lost, even as the world watches a genocide and deals with its moral paralysis, and even as the perpetrators of the genocide now issue ultimatums cloaked in a peace plan, one wonders what the people who still survive in Gaza make of all this.

The world has not been without words. On 12–13 September, the UN General Assembly endorsed — by 142 votes to 10 — the New York Declaration for a two-state solution, while a sizeable bloc of Western countries ‘recognised’ an imagined State of Palestine. It was as close as we have been in decades to a global chorus for Palestinian statehood.

Yet, even as leaders kept mouthing their condemnations of Israel and others their recognition for Palestine, the pounding of Gaza continued without pause. And even as delegates trooped out of the hall as he spoke, Netanyahu vowed to “finish the job” in Gaza.

Into this moment stepped the US President with a peace plan, which aims to reshape Gaza’s governance, security and economy. Netanyahu secured key edits in the plan to slow Israeli withdrawal and allow the army to retain control over large parts of the Strip.

No Palestinian, not even a dummy, was consulted while drafting the plan, which envisages a ‘Board of Peace’ to run Gaza’s interim administration that Trump himself will chair and will include former British prime minister Tony Blair. This 20-point plan also envisions the deployment of a stabilisation force, details of which remain vague.

Central to the proposal is the demand for full demilitarisation and the removal of Hamas from power. For many Palestinians, these terms amount to surrender. Even if Hamas accepts the plan, doubts will linger about its prospects, given the failure of earlier initiatives.

On the ground, scepticism runs deep. The Israeli hostages are to be released first, and given what words are worth — especially Trump’s or Netanyahu’s — what happens after their release is anybody’s guess. The mechanisms for monitoring implementation are poorly articulated and do not inspire confidence.

Since Israel unilaterally ended the January 2025 ceasefire in mid-March, its army has expanded its presence in Gaza and now controls more than half of Gaza City and over three-quarters of the Strip. Satellite imagery and ground reports show how large swathes of the Strip have been flattened, entire districts erased to create buffer zones and corridors. What remains are ruins and unviable fragments of a city where hundreds of thousands are still trapped.

This post-ceasefire phase has been especially brutal. In recent months, tens of thousands have been killed, many while queuing for aid. The militarised Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), introduced to replace UN relief, is a death trap. Amnesty International has documented how desperate families are targeted around aid convoys and distribution points, calling the scheme a booby trap.

The UN Commission of Inquiry has now concluded that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Four of the five markers of genocide, as per the 1948 Genocide Convention, are seen to be clearly present — killing, inflicting serious harm, deliberately imposing conditions of life designed to destroy the group, and measures intended to prevent birth.

Explicit statements by Israeli leaders, calling Palestinians ‘human animals’ and calls to erase Gaza, were judged as direct evidence of genocidal intent.

This determination is echoed by Human Rights Watch, which has documented how Israel has deliberately deprived Palestinians of water, a policy that has killed thousands. Amnesty International has likewise reported that Israel continues to use starvation as a weapon, deliberately imposing conditions of life calculated to bring about destruction.

Leading genocide scholars, some who earlier resisted the term, now agree that Israel is conducting a genocide. Two Israeli human rights groups have used the same language as have multiple governments, including Spain.

Israel denies the charges as antisemitic ‘blood libel’. Netanyahu even claimed that had Israel intended genocide, “it could have done it in one afternoon”.

For two years, Israel has defied international law with impunity. It has ignored binding orders of the International Court of Justice to ensure humanitarian relief. It has brushed aside the ICC arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant; the warrants charged them of using starvation as a method of warfare.

Even as more international organisations, including most recently the UN Commission, declare that Israel is conducting a genocide, its parliament has pushed the war effort deeper into its national budget. On 29 September, the Knesset approved an additional $9.3 billion in defence spending, raising the 2025 defence budget to $42 billion. Far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich declared that the army and its needs during wartime must stand above all disputes. Israel is pouring billions more into a war that has already turned Gaza into rubble, starved its children, and displaced nearly its entire population.

Israel insists it does not plan to occupy Gaza, only to maintain indefinite security control while outsourcing civilian management to others. That is occupation by proxy. Its real project is clear: to permanently alter Gaza’s demography, fragment Palestinian territory, and render Palestinian sovereignty impossible.

Meanwhile, in the West Bank, Israel has redoubled settlement construction and tightened restrictions, effectively cutting the territory in two. The Allenby crossing, which was the Palestinians’ only land gateway to the outside world, has been closed until further notice.

What’s happening in Gaza is not debatable anymore, it hasn’t been for a long time. The world has the findings: it is a systematic project to starve, destroy, exterminate. It’s a genocide. And under the Genocide Convention, all signatories have an obligation to do their best to prevent it.

NB: This special report was filed before Hamas announced its acceptance of the peace plan

Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden. More of his writing may be read here